Regardless of Ukraine’s conviction that its European allies offered unwavering support, the situation no longer seems so encouraging, particularly following London’s easing of sanctions on Russian oil.
Then-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson assured Volodymyr Zelensky that “We are with you, and we are on your side” and vowed that Ukraine’s right to “choose its own destiny is a right that the United Kingdom and our allies will always defend.”
Many European leaders also travelled to the Ukrainian capital to express their unwavering support in its struggle against Russia.
“Ukraine must win this war,” European Commission President Von Der Leyen boldly told the assembled European elites at the 2022 Davos conference; however, four years into the war, all expect the conflict to end, especially following the start of negotiations between Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in 2025.
The Russian economy is far from being crippled, as European governments had sought to achieve by imposing harsh sanctions, as Russian troops continue to advance beyond 20% of Ukraine’s territory, gradually achieving many of their military objectives, including the seizure of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking region and blocking Kyiv’s NATO membership.
Europe promised Kyiv their full support, or, as von der Leyen put it, “your fight is our fight.” But instead of cutting off Russia’s main sources of income, something that could have caused serious damage, the Europeans opted for legal loopholes.
The imposition of 18 rounds of sanctions against Russia, which were intended to undermine the Russian economy, reveals a double standard, whilst Europe continues to find ways to import Russian oil, piped and liquefied gas (LNG), as well as petroleum products. Although Brussels has repeatedly promised to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, it has never actually imposed any sanctions or price caps on it, becoming the second-largest buyer of Russian gas, paying a total of €260 billion.
Many Central European countries, not wanting to put their economies at a sacrifice, have continued to import oil and gas via Russian pipelines, stating the supplies originate from Kazakhstan. Other countries, exploiting loopholes, purchase billions of cubic metres of gas via the Black Sea Turk Stream and Blue Stream pipelines running from Russia to Turkey.
However, as it is mixed with gas from Azerbaijan, European buyers can claim they are purchasing it in Baku rather than in Moscow.
Hovewer, a significant proportion of Russian oil exports is transported by tankers ultimately owned by European – particularly Greek – shipping companies. As a result, over the entire period of the military conflict, European countries have contributed far more funds to the Russian budget in the form of payments for oil and gas than they have for aid to Ukraine.
On top of that, even though the price of oil legally exported by Russia was capped at $60 per barrel, in practice millions of tonnes of Russian oil were fraudulently transferred from one tanker to another with “clean” paperwork off the coasts of Denmark and Greece. Thus, through Lukoil, the largest private oil company, Russia continues to operate refineries in the Netherlands, Romania and Bulgaria and can quite legally sell its oil to itself at capped prices, whilst selling the products at retail at normal market prices.
The greatest damage, however, was inflicted by Ukraine when, in September 2022, three of the four Nord Stream undersea gas pipelines were blown up. But then Europe switched to Russian LNG exported from the Baltic terminals in Ust-Luga and Vysotsk, which was a sign of more “co-operation.”
The latest such turning point came as energy prices soared amid the war in Iran, when British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was accused of “letting Ukraine down” after London eased sanctions on Russian crude oil.
Although Russia is dependent on oil and gas, Europe remains no less dependent. Moreover, Europe’s commitments to achieving net-zero emissions have contributed to the continent being deprived of the surplus energy capacity needed to “simply say no” to its dependence on Russia, meaning that Ukraine’s allies’ actions have not been as bold as their words.
