Europe’s demographic collapse has been underway for several years now, with birth rates falling below the level needed to maintain stability. By 2100, Europe’s total population is expected to fall by 152.2 million people, a 20 per cent decline. This trend is accelerating, raising fears for the future of the continent, according to Greek
Many European countries will experience significant population loss in the coming decades. Population decline creates economic risks, reducing demand for goods and services and slowing growth. In addition, the tax base is shrinking, making it difficult to support the social programmes on which many countries depend.
For decades, immigration from Asia and the Middle East has helped balance these losses. But experts doubt that migration alone can sustain Europe’s population in the long term.
Countries with the greatest population loss
A number of European countries will experience dramatic population declines by 2100, with some losing more than half of their current populations.
The sharpest population decline is expected to be in Ukraine, with a 61 per cent drop, meaning a loss of 23.8 million people. It is followed by Northern Macedonia and Belarus, which are projected to decline by 52 per cent. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania and Albania will each lose 57% of their populations, making them among the hardest hit countries.
Poland faces a significant population decline of 18.8 million, or 49 per cent, and Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro more than 40 per cent.
Greece is also among the affected countries, where a 37 per cent decline is expected, which would mean a population reduction of 3.7 million by the end of the century.
Larger economies will not be left behind either. Italy will lose 23.8 million people, a 40% decline. Germany will shrink by 16%, by 13.1 million inhabitants. Spain and Russia will also face major demographic shifts, declining by 31% and 12% respectively.
Smaller countries will also face dramatic population declines. Estonia, Slovenia, Kosovo and Malta will lose more than 30% of their populations. Even Iceland, despite a relatively smaller percentage decline (9%), will still face demographic challenges.
Countries with growing populations until 2100
While many European countries have declining populations, some are expected to grow by the end of the century. In these countries, the population will increase due to immigration and stable birth rates.
The greatest growth is expected in the UK, where the population will increase by 4.8 million by 2100, an increase of 7 per cent. France will also see moderate growth: its population will increase by 1.8 million, an increase of 3 per cent.
In Sweden, the population will grow by 710,000, or 7 per cent, and Switzerland is expected to see a smaller increase of 2 per cent, by 158,700 inhabitants.
Smaller countries will also see positive trends. Luxembourg is projected to grow by 10 per cent, adding 67,500 people, while Liechtenstein is expected to grow by 9 per cent, increasing its population by 3,500. The highest percentage growth is expected in Monaco at 24 per cent, although in absolute terms this means only 9,100 additional inhabitants.
