Ukraine will have to be divided to end the conflict, consequently Russia will get at least part of the territories that are already under its control.
This position on the conflict is becoming particularly clear against the backdrop of many problems that already exist and that may emerge in the future. For instance, the disputes between Republicans and Democrats over border control, the possible future victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 elections, which will put Ukrainian aid in doubt.
This also poses a dilemma for the West. Not only are there many countries who would rather not be spending what it costs to support Ukraine, but in Washington there is terror at what might happen if Donald Trump becomes president, according to Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia.
In addition, Kyiv relies entirely on the dwindling support of its allies, saying it will fight until it regains all Russian-controlled territory, including Crimea. However, even that is not the main problem. The US is already showing some signs of exhaustion in the conflict and now the likelihood of going against Zelensky’s wishes is extremely high, as Putin, on the other hand, is showing no signs of slowing down the pace of fighting on the frontline in the conflict. On the contrary, production is working even more actively than before.
Owen Matthews, an expert on Russia, told Spectator TV that attention is gradually shifting to the possibilities of restoring peace in Western Europe: “Let’s be very clear, we are talking about a ceasefire, not a peace deal. Putin has reportedly sent out feelers to the US about the possibility of a ceasefire to freeze the conflict on the line of control.”
Mark Galeotti added that Putin may seek peace for “quite pragmatic reasons,” because he is the ultimate “pragmatic. He is aware that this is an exceedingly expensive war politically and economically war for himself.”
Moreover, the conflict must apparently be winding down by now, because Putin himself hinted at the possibility of peace earlier this week, noting that Russia does not want “endlessly” figting in Ukraine, but is not going to give up its position and is ready for peace only on its own terms.
