A new study published in The Lancet HIV warns that reductions in global health funding could lead to millions of additional HIV infections and deaths in low- and middle-income countries by 2030, reversing decades of progress in combating the epidemic.
The study estimates that cuts in foreign aid could result in 4.4 to 10.8 million new HIV infections and 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths. Researchers analysed 26 aid-dependent countries, including Albania, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa, where international funding has been vital in sustaining HIV prevention and treatment programmes.
The United States, historically the largest donor to global HIV efforts through PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), alongside contributions from the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, has provided nearly 90% of worldwide HIV support.
However, recent policy shifts under the Trump administration, including cuts to disease prevention programmes and weakened support for vaccination campaigns, have already disrupted critical services.
The study highlights that funding reductions would disproportionately impact sub-Saharan African nations, where HIV prevalence remains highest, as well as marginalised populations, including sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs.
Researchers emphasise the need for long-term, stable funding to prevent a resurgence of the epidemic. Without sustained investment, hard-won gains, such as expanded access to life-saving antiretroviral drugs and reduced mother-to-child transmission, could be lost.
