The leader of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has invited the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) to coalition talks, signalling his intention to bury the hatchet between the two parties.
A “power shift” in the European Union is inevitable if Austrian right-wing leader Herbert Kickl forms a government, a political analyst said.
As Kickl prepares for potential coalition talks with the conservative ÖVP, political analyst Peter Hajek says that “there is no doubt that with Kickl becoming federal chancellor, there will certainly be a slight shift of power in the European Union.”
According to Hajek, Kickl’s leadership is “really unpredictable” and he is “always coming up with new tricks,” adding that if he becomes chancellor, he must “take a course that the previous government did not follow.”
Kikl’s FPÖ won the recent parliamentary elections with 28.8 per cent of the vote, beating outgoing chancellor Karl Nehammer’s conservative ÖVP to second place.
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen initially tasked Nehammer with forming a government. However, the ÖVP refused to enter into a coalition with the FPÖ under Kickl’s leadership, leading to a political deadlock.
The formation of a government between the FPÖ and the ÖVP could go rather quickly after three months of protracted negotiations. The commonalities between the two parties are significant and the differences not so great.
Great unity on taxes and the economy
The FPÖ and ÖVP promise to reduce payroll and corporate tax deductions to strengthen the economy. Under the motto “Labour must pay off” there are tax-free bonuses for employees, bonuses for full-time workers, tax-free overtime and the possibility of working tax-free in retirement. On the other hand, unemployment benefits are to be made degressive and reduced over time.
Budget deficit is still an open question
It is not yet known how the budget deficit will be closed. The idea of cancelling the climate bonus or cancelling the CO₂ tax altogether, which would make the bonus redundant, is on the surface. The generous climate subsidies introduced under the Black Green government are likely to be cut. Cuts in minimum security and other social spending for foreigners are also expected, as well as restrictions on education.
Ignoring Sky Shield’s point of conflict
The FPÖ is pushing hard to withdraw from the European Missile Shield (Sky Shield) project in order to close the budget deficit. However, not a single euro has yet been spent on Sky Shield, even though the army has budgeted 2.5 billion euros for medium and short-range missile defence – as a one-off investment. The FPÖ rejects the project because it is incompatible with neutrality. Since Sky Shield is progressing very slowly at the European level, ÖVP and FPÖ can simply bypass the issue.
Security and migration intersections
Security issues and measures against uncontrolled mass migration will be quickly harmonised. Police powers will be expanded and the fight against “political Islam” will be intensified. The FPÖ and ÖVP also seek to establish refugee centres and detention facilities in third countries, but this is not exclusively a national matter. International partners and initiatives at EU level are needed. There is likely to be agreement on stricter integration rules with penalties (reduction of social benefits).
Social and gender issues
Bans on gender equality in the administration, stopping “early sexualisation” in schools and kindergartens, and support for home-based childcare are expected. In the area of pension policy, no major reforms such as raising the retirement age are expected. Only incentives for longer working hours are being considered, and a cap on partial pensions may be introduced.
