France is holding legislative elections today likely to be important for Paris and could lead to the right becoming a major unit in parliament.
On 30 June, the Rassemblement Nationale (RN) party won the first round of voting, but the latest polls indicated the RN would fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, but would still remain the largest party in parliament, Euractiv reported. Moreover, last week saw over 200 tactical electoral agreements between centrist and left wing candidates designed to prevent the RN from winning during the resurgence of the anti-extreme right “Republican Front.”
The outcome may enable French President Emmanuel Macron to possibly form a broad coalition opposing the RN and keep Gabriel Attal as prime minister on an interim basis. Regardless, the move may portend a prolonged period of so-called paralysed politics in France just as the country prepares to host the Olympics starting July 26. Attal, in his last pre-election interview with French television on Friday, said:
Today the danger is a majority dominated by the extreme right and that would be catastrophic.
The final results of opinion polls released by the two organisations on Friday predict the RN will win between 170 and 210 seats, followed by the broad left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition with 145 to 185 seats and Macron’s centrists with 118 to 150 seats. The success of the NFP will thus be another key election theme, even if its unity looks fragile.
In spite of the final outcome of the election, Macron’s status as one of Europe’s leading figures and a key Western bulwark for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia is in extreme jeopardy. Apart, Macron has vowed to remain in office until 2027, when he will have to step down and Le Pen will feel she has a good chance of winning the presidential palace.
Following the start of voting on Saturday in France’s overseas territories, polling stations in mainland France will open at 06:00 GMT and close at 18:00 GMT. Forecasts suggesting an accurate view of the outcome of the election go public shortly afterwards.
Still, many in France remain perplexed as to why Macron has called an election he was under no obligation to hold, which could result in the RN doubling its presence in parliament and halving its contingent of centrist MPs. Macron, however, is set to implement what he calls a “clarification” of French politics, which he hopes will eventually lead to a division of the country into three clear camps.
“France is on the cusp of a seismic political shift,” said analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), warning that even if Macron controlled the government after the election he would face “legislative gridlocks” that would weaken “France’s voice on the European and international stage.”
