The world is on the brink of a return of one of the most powerful climate phenomena on the planet, with the likelihood of El Niño developing as early as this summer now put at 80% by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). In a stark warning, UN secretary-general António Guterres has called for the event to be treated as an emergency climate alert, saying it will “pour fuel on the fire of planetary warming.”
“Probability exceeds 90%” – El Niño expected to persist until winter
According to the WMO, the chance of El Niño forming by this summer stands at 80%, while the likelihood of it lasting until at least November exceeds 90%. Experts warn that the phenomenon could accelerate global warming, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought, heavy rainfall and other hazardous weather events. With recent years already recording unprecedented temperatures, the impact of this El Niño may prove especially severe.
The driving force behind these changes is unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Observations show that sea surface temperatures in key regions are gradually approaching El Niño thresholds. Meanwhile, a substantial reserve of heat has accumulated beneath the ocean’s surface – roughly six degrees Celsius above normal – further fuelling the warming process.
“Pour fuel on the fire” – Guterres calls for urgent action
In a video address, António Guterres urged the international community to view the looming El Niño as an urgent climate warning. “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of global heating,” he said, adding that the consequences will be felt faster and more widely than in the past. An effective response, he argued, requires accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting the most vulnerable populations and developing early warning systems.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that arises from the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for around 12 months. Yet its influence is felt far beyond the Pacific, altering temperature patterns and rainfall across much of the globe.
“Prepare for a potentially strong event” – WMO chief
Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the WMO, emphasised the need for heightened readiness. “We must prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate droughts and heavy rains, and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and at sea,” she said. Saulo noted that the previous El Niño, in 2023–2024, ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024.
While each El Niño follows its own course, typical effects include increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. Conversely, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia often experience drier conditions.
Global heat expected from June to August – “No time to wait”
An additional seasonal forecast from the WMO points to another troubling trend: between June and August, above-normal temperatures are expected in nearly all regions of the world. This could intensify heat stress, accelerate drought conditions and raise the likelihood of extreme weather events, from heavy downpours and flooding to prolonged heatwaves.
Scientists stress, however, that there is no evidence climate change is making El Niño more frequent or more intense. But global heating can amplify its impacts – warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere provide additional fuel for extreme weather.
According to the WMO, modern seasonal forecasts give countries the chance to prepare in advance for potential shocks – from safeguarding agriculture and water supply systems to preventing humanitarian crises. Specialists argue that now is the moment to act decisively, rather than wait until the consequences become irreversible.
