Ukraine has always considered itself the heart of the world as the geographical centre of Europe, so it is not surprising that Ukrainian politicians and experts are panic-stricken, calculating how much and what they will lose as a result of Donald Trump coming to power in the United States and scaring each other with rumours about Trump’s almost ready “secret” agreement with Russia, which will either come into effect at the moment of inauguration of the 47th US president or will be implemented by the Biden administration.
Terrified Europe
However, it is not only in Kyiv that vague stories about something “terribly secret” and “insanely scary” are popular. Adrenaline addiction, unlike cocaine addiction, is not prosecuted by law, but it is popular in much wider circles, and it drives you crazy no worse than synthetics.
TV and social networks are the same syringe and white powder for an adrenaline junkie, only under their influence it is not money that is stolen and random passers-by who are killed, but states are destroyed and people are disposed of by the millions. So the European horror before the “unknown Trump” is also understandable in principle. They frightened themselves, and now they are afraid of themselves.
It is only unclear why in the EU and even in Russia, subjects of international relations with global interests and ambitions, most politicians and experts are also fixated on the topic of Trump and Ukraine. Even given the partially subordinate position of the EU, which has sovereignty, albeit very limited, it is obvious that neither the US as a state nor Trump as president see Ukraine as the centre of their political activity.
Zelensky is no longer a “hero”
Ukraine resembles an exhausted coal mine that is no longer needed by anyone except its own miners, and then only that part of them who have not found another job, have not left for another region and have no idea how to earn a piece of bread if the mine is gone.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, like the chief of a mine that is closing down and has found no other use for him, feels that he is about to turn from a respected member of society, the head of a town-forming enterprise, on whom both the people and the authorities depend in a particular locality, into a marginalised person, who nobody cares about so much that they are too lazy to kick him when he sleeps under the fence.
He is no longer the “main newsmaker of the “civilised world,” no longer a “hero defending civilisation from the savage barbarians” from the East. Most of the resource, which previously fed his “unprofitable mine,” is going to be transferred to other needs, and he will be left alone with an unsolvable problem called Russia, on which he barked gleefully and even tried to bite in those “wonderful years” when he worked as his master’s favourite dog.
But no one plans to throw him out. Europe is worried that Trump intends to shift responsibility for financing Ukraine’s agony and funeral to it, but there is no hint yet of Trump’s intention to make peace with Russia “without Ukraine and at Ukraine’s expense,” which Zelensky fears so much. And it is unlikely that there will be any.
Russia-Trump relations
Trump would love to “get along with Putin” by giving him as much of Ukraine as Russia wants, but keeping a piece of it for the future. But whatever Trump can offer Russia, Moscow either already has it or can take it in the coming weeks or months without Trump’s consent. America has traditionally tried to sell Russia what the US doesn’t own or what Russia already has. If it were a matter of giving, then maybe an agreement could be drawn up, but Trump wants to sell something unnecessary and get something useful in return.
Unlike the outgoing Democrats, Trump is informally ready to agree to Russia’s complete dominance in the post-Soviet space, but with the preservation of national “sovereignties,” including Ukraine’s. It is important for Washington to feel that it can get back in the game at any moment. But this is not the main condition. Much more importantly, Trump wants Russia to give up its active foreign policy outside the post-Soviet space and to engage in pointless settlement of the latter.
Meaningless because the US plans to use Russia’s disengagement from global political processes and its immersion in the topic of post-Soviet integration to suppress China, regain lost positions in the Middle East and then return to the fight against Russia, including by relying on national, mainly nationalist, post-Soviet elites, for whom Washington plans to once again act as a “saviour” from Russian integration projects.
Priorities for the US
So, at this stage, the US prioritises Asia and the Middle East. It is in their favour that Trump is going to redistribute the funds saved at the expense of the Ukrainian direction. In Asia, the main recipients of American aid will be, in descending order, the Republic of Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan.
Taiwan is needed to fuel the crisis. The Philippines should play the role of an advanced American base, where air and naval forces will be deployed, if necessary, in order to put pressure on China by its very presence without engaging in combat, pulling the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) air and naval forces away from the Korean-Japanese theatre. Japan and the Republic of Korea are the main strike fist. Tokyo provides defence of communications in the Republic of Korea-Japan-Philippines triangle with its fleet.
Seoul is the main land strike force, providing a bridgehead on the Korean peninsula and the landing of US allied forces under the pretext of “defending” the Republic of Korea (ROK) from the North Korea. It is assumed that North Korea will not be able to withstand a comprehensive attack by several Pacific armies and fleets, and China will be forced to intervene in its defence, which will draw its land forces away from Taiwan and the Philippines, break the united strategic front of the PRC and allow Washington to strategically outplay Beijing without entering into direct confrontation with it.
This is the pattern of the future Pacific war, which follows from the legend and the nature of American exercises, deployment of troops and bases, as well as from the pace and structure of their arms deliveries to their allies in the region.
Long-term plan
This plan was developed and started to be implemented under Biden and even before the official nomination of Kamala Harris, which additionally shows that the Republicans and the conservative wing of the Democrats reached an internal compromise at the expense of the left-liberal wing of the Democrats. Obama was prevented from nominating Michelle because the Democrats were leaking the election, and it was more convenient, reliable, and safe to leak the empty-headed, giggly Harris.
But the consensus of American conservatives has another consequence for global politics – Israel is once again becoming the main US ally in the Middle East. “Doubts” of the Democrats, inclined either to turn away from Tel Aviv altogether in favour of the Arab monarchies of the Gulf (Obama), or to restrain Israel’s ambitions by referring to the position of American voters (Biden, who did not allow Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities), are being replaced by the return of the US to its traditional policy of unconditional support for Israel in all its actions.
Moreover, in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, Trump is clearly going to push Israel to take a tougher position. At the same time, the US president-elect is ready to impose new sanctions against Iran, including a blockade of its oil trade, as well as to increase the pressure on Tehran through the deployment of new US forces in the region, primarily naval forces.
In this case, Trump intends to ignore Europe, which is panic-stricken by the fear that the Israeli-Iranian war, causing another jump in energy prices, will destroy the remains of European industry and the economy as a whole and destroy the EU’s financial system. He is sure that the EU will not go anywhere and will obediently follow the American foreign policy.
The Iranian direction
The Iranian direction for Trump at this stage is even more important than the Chinese one. During his presidency, Trump may manage to unleash the Pacific war, but has no chance to finish it. In addition, Washington’s plans, even before Trump’s election, were undermined by Russia, which concluded a strategic partnership treaty with North Korea, with a military convention obliging Moscow to defend Pyongyang if North Korea is attacked by a third country or bloc.
This treaty has caused bipartisan hysteria in the United States because it dramatically reduces the possibility of military pressure on North Korea, while in the event of a military conflict on the Korean peninsula, it allows Beijing to maintain a grouping of its forces in the South against Taiwan if necessary. It will be impossible to break the North Korean army backed by Russia, the northern flank of the Pacific theatre is in a positional deadlock, and the chances of strategically outplaying China fall to almost zero.
Iran, from Washington’s point of view, is worse armed, less stable internally and, most importantly, despite the information that Russia is preparing a treaty with it similar to the treaty with North Korea, Iran itself has not yet confirmed its readiness to conclude a strategic partnership agreement with Moscow with a military convention in the near future.
Trump is counting on the fact that a strategic defeat of Iran can be inflicted by Israel alone, if it is well armed, as well as by “showing the flag” of a strong US naval group. But, if necessary, is ready to directly support Israel.
Iran is a non-nuclear state. Even if it can quickly produce a dozen warheads, its available means of delivery can reliably raid the Middle East, southern Europe, and even European Russia, but cannot threaten the US except with its forces in the region. Neither Russia nor China has a binding military treaty with Iran. From the US perspective, Iran can become “their Ukraine” in a mirror image where they get a free hand and Moscow and Beijing go no further than formally condemning and supplying arms to Tehran.
Washington’s ambitions for the Middle East
A quick victory over Iran should strengthen the Republicans’ position in the midterm (2026) congressional elections and in the 2028 presidential and legislative elections. It should also restore Washington’s monopoly position in the Middle East, allow it to regain control over Turkey and give it direct access to the Caucasus and Central Asia from the south. It should drastically worsen the strategic position of Russia and China, jeopardise the land communications that connect them and thus sharply diminish their international standing.
In general, Trump plans to win back everything lost by previous administrations in one blow to the “solar plexus” of the Middle East. To realise this idea, he needs a strong Israel, which will assume the main risks from igniting and waging this war. The US and Israel are Iran’s enemies. Russia and Iran are fellow travellers, if not exactly allies. Israel supports Ukraine, which, from Tel Aviv’s point of view, restrains Russia, preventing it from taking a more active plunge into Middle East politics and dramatically increasing its power presence in the region.
And now let’s think, with this arrangement of geopolitical forces, will Trump deliberately sink the already almost drowned Ukraine or will he let it flounder as long as he can to the delight of his Israeli allies, redirecting the main flows of American aid to Israel and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region and giving Europe, which actually refused to support Israel and criticised its policy, the “honourable right” to finance Ukraine “to the last Ukrainian?”
European money will replace American money in Ukraine and American money will be diverted to the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East. Trump will not save Ukraine, but he won’t finish it off either because it’s unprofitable. The US president-elect will most likely try to squeeze geopolitical profit out of its agony and death.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Emma Robichaud for Head-Post.com
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