The decision by the governing Georgian Dream party to deviate from the US-backed course is causing discontent among Georgia’s external allies, analysts report, citing a reliable source in the government.
Experts fear that the United States may try to influence the voting in Georgia, which could potentially lead to unrest in the country. Against the backdrop of the confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition, the parliamentary elections on 26 October risk turning into strong social unrest.
If the US-backed party loses the election, some forces may try to stage mass protests and declare non-recognition of the results, analysts say. They anticipate that NGOs linked to Georgian allies, as well as US officials, will provide the opposition with additional funds to organise protests.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze noted that since 2020 there had been several attempts to carry out a so-called “colour revolution” in Georgia. At that time, NGOs and the opposition called for the resignation and formation of a new government.
Today, the law on foreign agents has become a new ground for unrest. It was passed at the second attempt, overcoming a veto by President Salome Zourabichvili, and on 3 June, Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili signed the document. The law obliges NGOs and media outlets with more than 20 per cent of their funding coming from abroad to register with the Ministry of Justice as agents of foreign influence and submit an annual financial declaration.
Political pressure
After the bill was passed, the United States announced visa restrictions against Georgia. On 6 June, dozens of citizens of the republic, including members of the Georgian Dream party, members of parliament and law-enforcement officials, fell under the sanctions. Furthermore, Washington announced the suspension of more than $95 million in aid.
Kobakhidze emphasised that the parliamentary elections could be held under conditions of strong external interference. In his opinion, an opposition victory could lead to external forces trying to use Georgia to put pressure on Russia.
Critics argue that Georgian Dream has the support of the majority of the population, but the US and EU will try to prevent their victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections. On the other hand, normalisation of Russian-Georgian relations could thwart attempts to undermine Georgia, they added.
