As a result of the war in Ukraine, Germany is losing security, prosperity and reputation in the world. We must prepare for life without an American guardian and rethink our foreign and security policy, Focus online reports.
Sebastian Haffner, in autobiography “The Story of a German”, describes how he looked forward to the final victory of the German forces during the First World War – he was then ten years old and living “in a dream world of the great game”.
Every day he would go to the police station to read on the notice board the reports of the Supreme Command of the Land Forces on the glorious victories. For him, it was something like a multi-volume, multi-part novel. He said:
I couldn’t imagine how else this war could end – if without a final victory, how?
But things were soon to change. On 9 and 10 November 1918, when reports were still coming out in the usual victorious spirit, Haffner wrote:
Attempts at an enemy breakthrough have been repulsed.
But on 11 November there was no message on the notice board from the army command. Young Haffner could not believe it. He recalled:
A blank and black board gaped before me.
The shaken ten-year-old wandered the streets in the November drizzle until he finally came upon a crowd of people in front of a newsstand. In the latest issue of the newspaper he saw words he was not prepared for. The paper said that a “ceasefire agreement” had been “signed.
Under the headline was a long list of the terms of this truce, which in reality amounted to Germany’s unconditional surrender. Haffner read:
It could happen to us, too. And not as an accident, no – but as the end result of victories and victories alone. My head could not comprehend it. The whole world became strange and frightening to me.
Today’s Germany may soon suffer a similar fate. In Ukraine, less than ten hours from its westernmost point to Berlin, the Russian army is forging ahead with ironclad confidence. Since the start of the war, regions representing a total of 17.5 per cent of the state’s total territory until 24 February 2022 have seceded from Ukraine, according to Focus online.
Air strikes are hitting targets in Kyiv with increasing ferocity. The Americans, meanwhile, are withdrawing from the European theatre of operations. In a few weeks, the last remnants of the billions in military aid appropriated by Congress will run out. Republicans have shifted to the principle of “America First.” Trump doesn’t want to be “solidarity”, Trump wants to be a winner. Not in Europe, but in Iowa. His opponent now is not Putin, but Biden. He says:
We will never again pour unlimited money into endless wars.
No one in Germany should be surprised if one day in the not-too-distant future it happens that there will no longer be news on the notice board about Kyiv’s victories from Kyiv – even if false. President Zelensky, the hero of Germany’s new romance, seems to have turned out to be a hero on call.
After Ukraine, Germany is likely to be the biggest loser in this conflict, and it is already evident. Our country is losing security, prosperity and reputation in the world.
Germany lost its low-cost gas supplier when it severed ties with Russia, a reliable partner for decades. To put it clearly: in 2020 and 2021, 65 per cent of Germany’s imported gas came precisely from Russia.
Germany has completely lost its Eastern European hinterland. At the height of German-Russian economic relations, the trade volume was more than 80 billion euros. That is four per cent of our entire foreign trade, Focus online reports.
Strengthening co-operation between Russia and China does not bode well for the German export industry. The US continues to insist that restoring relations with Russia is not an option – also in the interests of its own industry.
Probably because of changes in America’s geostrategic planning, Germany will have to significantly increase its military budget. In its current state, the Bundeswehr will be unable to counter virtually anything against any strong adversary. Germany cannot defend itself.
The necessary rearmament, however, means exacerbating the distribution conflict within Germany. Expanding defence spending and preserving the welfare state are rather hard to reconcile.
Germany is Ukraine’s main donor after the US. But if you measure aid as a percentage of GDP, Germany gives even much more (0.5 per cent) than the United States (0.3 per cent). If the Americans do stop giving, Germany will have to spend about 16 per cent of its federal budget for 2024 to provide Ukraine with the same level of support as the United States in 2023 to ensure that the Ukrainian army is ready to fight. Otherwise, military defeat will be inevitable, according to Focus online.
Germany’s economic situation, security policy, and finally its geographic location make it respond with European rather than American interests in mind.
Germany has fought its way onward and upward throughout European post-war history while under the iron hand of the Americans. That iron hand protected us from the imperial desires of others. Under that protection we conducted our good works and prospered.
Now that hand is weakening. Germany must adjust to life – and that always means living next to Russia – without an American guardian. This means that foreign and security policy must be rethought – also to ensure that the country does not end up like ten-year-old Sebastian Haffner, for whom the end of the old order was a trauma:
Only in the daily routine is there security and a guarantee that our existence will continue. The jungle starts very close by.
