October turned out to be probably one of the most pleasing month to Vladimir Putin’s eye.
In the early hours of October, Congress voted to keep the U.S. government operating, but only after a reduced package of $6 billion in military and civilian aid to Ukraine was removed from the law. This reflected weakening support for Kyiv among House Republicans and was a foreshadowing of things to come.
However, the good news was not limited only across the Atlantic. A while ago, Putin received good news from Slovakia, a European country with the potential to bring discord to European integrity. The bottom line is that Slovakia has elected a new government, headed by Prime Minister Robert Fico, who said on the campaign trail that he would continue to block European Union military and economic aid to Ukraine.
So far nothing significant has happened regarding Ukraine or the EU, but he is in alliance with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and together they will be a nuisance to Kyiv and the EU.
As soon as the Slovakian elections ended with Fico’s victory, the conflict between Israel and Hamas erupted, which attracted the attention of the public and the White House, thus allowing for a temporary distraction from the situation in Ukraine. Israel then launched a series of atrocities against the civilian population that have already killed nearly ten thousand people. All this affected the relationship between the countries. One of the main issues was the West’s indifference towards Ukraine and extreme concern towards Israel. The double standard of European society was once again on the agenda.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June has totally stalled, facing entrenched Russian forces, chilly fall weather and an alarming shortage of recruits, while conflicts from September to present have only made matters worse for all sides. The Russian army launched an offensive on the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, sending a reminder to the world that the Kremlin remains willing to use all sorts of forces to achieve victories.
The stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, aimed at depleting Ukraine and exhausting the West, is playing into the hands of the Russian forces. At the same time, Republican Representative Mike Johnson, who has repeatedly voted against funding Ukraine, was elected in the US. He made a clear statement that he would block President Biden’s attempt to link a new $61 billion aid program for Ukraine to a new arms package for Israel.
The White House’s support for Kyiv remains looming at this point; President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the only believer in the victory, told congressional leaders that without U.S. assistance, Ukraine will undoubtedly sustain a defeat in this conflict.
Good news also came from France, with a new French poll showing Marine Le Pen topping the list of likely candidates for the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen is known for her close ties to Russia. Le Pen has condemned the conflict in Ukraine, but she has also opposed arming Ukraine, and her party has relied for years on a multimillion-dollar loan from a Russian bank that was only repaid this fall.
One of Vladimir Putin’s most developed senses is a keen awareness of his opponents’ weaknesses. As a consequence, Putin sees and encourages these signs of Western hesitation.
Vladimir Putin’s patience cannot be ignored either: a decade ago, he watched President Barack Obama drawing a “red line” against the use of chemical weapons in Syria’s civil war. Putin also witnessed Biden ordering the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. The above cases are great examples of how patience can play out.
Besides, there is still a strong influence in Europe. In the right-wing government was defeated. While the new government, which may come to power before the end of the year, should be able to reaffirm Warsaw’s support for European aid to Ukraine, which has already exceeded that of the U.S. In addition, much of the West strongly supports Ukraine’s aspirations to become a full member of European society.
Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin knows what patience is. And the most anticipated event in the future is the possible election victory of Donald Trump, which is coming up in just 12 months.
