Donald Trump’s trip to the Middle East is more than just billion-dollar contracts, camel parades and a storm at home over Qatar’s offer to provide the US president with a new plane. The most important event of his trip was his meeting with the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Former terrorist, current leader
White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said that the meeting between the leaders took place at the invitation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also joined the conversation by telephone. The Saudis insisted on lifting sanctions against the “new Syria.” Donald Trump, in turn, made a counter-demand: Damascus must sign the so-called “Abraham Accords,” which imply normalisation of relations with Israel, begin the fight against ISIS and its allied groups, expel radical jihadists from the country, and take control of the activities of field camps for training militants.
However, the most important thing is, of course, the indirect legitimisation of Ahmed al-Sharaa. Before he overthrew Bashar al-Assad, al-Sharaa was a militant leader who had pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and for whose capture the US had offered a reward of $10 million. Now he is meeting with the leaders of the world’s major powers — Emmanuel Macron rushed to Riyadh and did not fail to hold an official meeting and photo session with him.
The EU and the US have effectively recognised the new Syrian statehood, which is very pleasing to Ankara, as al-Sharaa and his associates have never hidden their pro-Turkish sympathies. However, Turkey is aware that players of strategic calibre may now enter Syrian territory.
Impact of sanctions on Syria
Even during Bashar al-Assad’s time, Syria’s problem was large-scale sanctions against both its monetary system and its energy sector. In addition to a direct ban on transactions and conversion of the local pound, imports of any equipment and technology that would allow for the restoration, modernisation or construction of power generation facilities from scratch were completely blocked.
The situation was critically exacerbated by the loss of the lion’s share of productive oil fields, which led to a total shortage of fuel raw materials and the extreme wear and tear of the remaining power plants, refineries and pipelines. This largely determined the speed of the collapse. The new government and Turkey are well aware of this weak point — they themselves played this card to overthrow Assad. But even together, Ankara and Damascus cannot resolve this issue. Syria lies in ruins, and Turkey has a lot of its own problems in the energy sector, and it will not openly violate US sanctions.
We are currently only talking about the electricity generation sector, but in principle, there are no areas of Syria’s energy sector that are functioning normally. The shortage of primary resources, hydrocarbon processing products, distribution networks, gas and oil pipelines, and chemical plants is simply enormous. In a world where all markets have long been divided up, this is simply a gold mine for industrially developed countries.
Washington’s interests
Washington, at least for now, is not openly seeking contracts for the reconstruction of post-war Syria and its energy system, but it has its own broad interests. Trump’s key task is to pacify the region as much as possible, secure Israel, and thus go down in history as the man who accomplished the almost impossible.
For the Saudis, Syria is not only a huge energy market, but also a springboard to a new technological future. Riyadh understands perfectly well that the structure of the global energy sector is changing, at least in terms of natural gas increasingly replacing oil as the economic and energy base. This is not widely reported, but Saudi companies are well represented in the US oil refining market. They own shares in many large petroleum product manufacturers. A similar expansion is actively underway in China in the form of joint projects. With Beijing’s support, the Saudis are introducing the latest coal combustion technologies. They dream of building the country’s first nuclear power plant.
Strengthening the Saudis in the Middle East
The Abraham Accords were launched by Trump during his first term, but the Biden administration has completely ignored them for four years, as well as Riyadh’s requests for the transfer of peaceful nuclear technology. Today, the Saudis are actively mediating in the conflict surrounding Syria and Palestine, and if successful, it is possible that Trump will agree to the nuclear deal so desired by the Arabs. This version is also supported by the fact that Saudi Arabia is systematically normalising relations with Israel.
Washington benefits from strengthening the Saudis in the region. Firstly, this will prevent Turkey from controlling the whole of Syria. Secondly, it will create a new counterweight to Iran’s continuing presence and influence. Thirdly, by giving the Saudis such a generous gift, the US can count on reciprocal steps in the form of new arms contracts, increased investment in US Treasuries and more attentive consideration of Washington’s requests regarding the regulation of oil production volumes, i.e. a controlled adjustment of medium-term market prices.
“Oil for arms”
Through the Saudis and Israelis, the US will be able to directly influence events in the region, contain Turkey’s ambitions, put a spoke in Iran’s wheel and count on an influx of Saudi petrodollars. Saudi Arabia gets a completely empty Syrian market, the opportunity to radically reform its energy sector and, along with it, its economy. And finally, it becomes an equal player in its relations with the US. For the Saudis, this is a matter of national prestige after the termination of a half-century-old oppressive strategic partnership agreement, better known as “oil for arms.”
That’s the tricky mix of power and interests. We’ll have to see what Ankara and Tehran think about this, and how reliable the new government in Damascus will be in protecting foreign investments.
History is full of examples of Washington trusting leaders in the Middle East to keep countries torn apart by religious and tribal divisions intact and secure. However, in Iraq, this gamble ultimately cost thousands of American lives.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Albert Martin for Head-Post.com
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