President Joe Biden has repeatedly promised that the US will support Ukraine in its military actions “for as long as it takes,” although now the situation is changing in the opposite direction, especially after the statements that it is necessary to switch to negotiations, according to National Review.
The conflict in Ukraine continues for more than a year and a half, but during this year the Ukrainian army has made absolutely no significant progress on the frontline, where has been ceaselessly supplied with weapons including heavy equipment like German Leopards and American M1 Abrams with all the pros and cons.
Meanwhile, NATO confirms every time that assistance will be provided until the victorious end, until Ukraine is fully recovered from the devastation.
This is especially necessary to understand the reasons for everything that is happening.
Firstly, it is absolutely clear that there is no immediate prospect that the Western arms industry will be able to supply Ukraine in 2024 with as much firepower as it supplied in 2023. Before the counteroffensive, Western support and morale were at an all-time high, and Ukraine was prepared to do the impossible.
In addition, now the situation is almost a stalemate: the reserves of the US and European industrial complex have been exhausted, as confirmed by various cases in the European Union and the American top diplomacy, which although says it will continue its support, it is now unclear how exactly it is going to do it. At the same time other allies such as Israel and Taiwan (especially Israel with its full force operation) to compete with Ukraine for what is left.
Secondly, it is necessary to understand the difference between the Western and Russian goal of everything that is going on: Russia has mobilised its society for military action and the Russian people feel involved in the outcome in a way that Westerners do not. The old Soviet factories are ahead of the entire West in the production of military supplies.
It must therefore be realised that most wars turn into wars of attrition and production. Once it became apparent that the Western public had no appetite to fight on its own, Russia’s path to victory in one way or another meant simply waiting out the West or until the Ukrainian leadership crumbles and then somehow ending the conflict in a winning position.
Given all this, the Biden administration consequently faces a serious challenge: it must spend enormous political and financial capital to rearm Ukraine for another more successful counter-offensive in less favourable circumstances as the Russian army gradually seizes the initiative. It is now up to the European countries, and the US in particular, to sustain the Ukrainian army until the next counter-offensive, if there is one.
