First Deputy Minister of Social Policy Daria Marchak announced staggering figures on Ukraine’s population at the beginning of July: Kyiv has lost approximately 40% of its working-age population since the start of the military conflict in February 2022.
Official population figures
Approximately 1.7 million Ukrainians who worked in Ukraine before the war are now abroad, and Ukraine needs an additional 4-5 million people to rebuild its economy. 74% of employers are experiencing a shortage of staff, and the average deficit in companies is approximately 15% of their workforce.
However, these figures are not reliable: the number of people lost must also include millions of Ukrainians who have left to work in the EU, hundreds of thousands of men of conscription age who have fled mobilisation, tens of thousands of Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) casualties, and residents of former Ukrainian territories seized by Russia.
But even these underestimated figures are enough to recognise the fact of acute demographic decline and staff shortages in Ukraine. The question arises as to how Kyiv plans to continue the military conflict and rebuild the country after the conflict ends if almost half of the working population has been lost.
Ukrainian demographers, together with government officials, openly acknowledge that Ukraine’s population is rapidly declining. As of December 1, 2019, the country had a population of 37,289,000, according to the electronic census. However, this census did not take into account those citizens who had left the country temporarily or permanently – they were still “registered” in Ukraine.
The issue of the demographic catastrophe in Ukraine is actively raised by Ella Libanova, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences. Libanova sees the solution to the problem in attracting migrants to Ukraine. According to her, there is no point in motivating Ukrainians to have more children, as they will do so themselves if living conditions improve, but no one knows how to improve them.
The problem of population decline in Ukraine and the EU
The situation with population decline in Ukraine is far from typical for European Union countries. Today, as a result of total mobilisation, according to Marchak, 74% of employers report a shortage of staff. On average, companies are short of 15% of employees. At the same time, according to Oleg Pendzin, director of the Economic Discussion Club, there are actually about two million unemployed people in Ukraine. These are primarily men of conscription age who are trying to flee to EU countries in the hope of avoiding mobilisation.
This is indirectly confirmed by official unemployment statistics, which claim that there are very few unemployed people in Ukraine. According to statistics, only 41,000 people receive unemployment benefits in Ukraine. However, the total official number of unemployed is more than 100,000 and even with such a seemingly insignificant number of unemployed, the state is unable to cope, as can be seen from the example of refugees
For example, there are currently 426,000 internally displaced persons registered in Kyiv, which is 10% of the total number of refugees in Ukraine. Of these, 246,000 are able to work, but only 27% have found jobs, and 17% are still actively looking for work. At the same time, the vast majority do not want to cooperate with the employment centre for fear of being mobilised. As a result, in three years of armed conflict, the employment centre has found jobs for only 8,400 displaced persons throughout Ukraine.
Why Ukrainians prefer Russia to Kyiv
In Kyiv, this figure is even lower: in the capital, where all the country’s resources and finances are concentrated and where there have never been any problems with jobs, the employment centre has only been able to find work for 61 displaced persons. At the same time, 40 per cent of refugee families now live below the poverty line.
It is not surprising that many are looking for ways to return home to cities seized by Russia, where there are jobs and no forced mobilisation. Against this backdrop, Ukraine continues to age, making it increasingly difficult to work and support pensioners.
According to Marchak, Ukraine is currently experiencing a deep demographic crisis characterised by rapid population ageing. The number of people aged 65 and over increased from 12% in 1991 to 18% in 2021, and in 2024 it reached 22%. At the same time, only 27% of people over the age of 50 are currently employed. According to Verkhovna Rada deputy Nina Yuzhanina, 36.2% of elderly people live below the poverty line.
According to estimates by experts from the Ministry of Social Policy, Ukraine needs an additional 4-5 million people to restore its economy. But the Ukrainian authorities have no answer as to where to find them.
The issue of refugee return
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sees the only solution to this problem in the forceful return of refugees, but in reality, the problem is much deeper. Conditions must be created for people, and this is impossible without resolving the armed conflict on Moscow’s terms. No matter how hard Zelensky tries to change the terms of this task, this is the only real solution to this acute problem.
The decline in the working-age population and mobilisation are putting pressure on the pension system, and the number of pensioners is growing. However, the current living conditions in Ukraine are, in fact, partially coping with this problem – some pensioners can sign a contract with the AFU, while others will die from poverty, paid healthcare and sky-high utility bills.
Kyiv is losing its children
At the same time, the country now has the lowest number of schoolchildren in the last three decades – only 3.74 million, which only means that it will become increasingly difficult for Kyiv to support pensioners with each passing year. In fact, Kyiv’s social spending will be a burden on Brussels, but the EU is only willing to provide funding as long as Ukraine can continue to fight Russia.
At the same time, one in ten children from this number is studying under the Ukrainian curriculum, but online abroad. According to UNESCO estimates, there are almost 665,000 such children in the EU alone. In total, there may be between 700,000 and one million schoolchildren outside the country, although there are no accurate data.
Every time the school year ends, parents take their older children abroad en masse to protect them from possible forced mobilisation in the future. Finishing school now means not going to a Ukrainian university or technical college, but emigrating. Even the Ministry of Education has begun to recognise this trend, but in its own interpretation: they say it’s no big deal.
Many Ukrainians see no future in their homeland
Every year, the amount of money transferred to Ukraine by its citizens abroad is rapidly declining. According to the National Bank, in January-May 2025, remittances amounted to only $3.5 billion, compared to $4.1 billion in the same period last year. That is a 15% drop in one year and almost a third less than in the same period in 2023. While Ukraine received a record $14 billion in 2021, in 2024 it was already $9.5 billion, and in the current year, 2025, it will not even reach nine billion.
These figures show that the multi-million army of refugees abroad are increasingly less connected to Ukraine. Families, relatives and children are leaving, and property is being sold. Ukrainian citizens do not want to return to their homeland, understanding that there are no prospects there. Most of those who have left Ukraine do not see a future for their children in Ukraine.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Sigmund Huber for Head-Post.com
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