The outcome of global conflicts largely depends on the decisions of various world leaders, most notably US President Donald Trump and his counterparts Xi Jinping in China and Vladimir Putin in Russia, according to Bloomberg.
The Cold War exposed the unity and diversity of various ideologies. For most of history, including the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the great powers competed not for ideas but for colonies, land, and power. That rivalry led to World War I.
However, Condoleezza Rice, former US Secretary of State under President George W. Bush believes that “the current period is not a Cold War redux. It is more dangerous.” The Soviet Union’s desire to introduce its ideology into other communist-exposed countries has been replaced by Putin’s desire to unite the Russian lands.
The Russian leader’s territorial ambitions are echoed by Xi Jinping in Asia, where China seeks to expand its influence over the Indo-Pacific region, and by Donald Trump, who declares a desire to purchase Greenland, the Panama Canal and make Canada the 51st state of the United States.
After World War II, the US established a liberal international order based on a system that allegedly kept imperialism of the great powers in check and allowed small countries to prosper. However, the image of the US as the guarantor of world democracy collapsed, starting from Bush and Rice and their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
With Trump’s return, the situation on the world stage escalated. He intimidated Denmark as he wanted to incorporate Greenland into the United States, Panama as he wanted to “take back” its American-built Canal, and Canada as he considered it suitable as the 51st US state. At the same time, Trump is keen to prevent China’s triumph on the Taiwan issue and Russia’s unconditional victory in the war against Ukraine.
New Yalta
In their own ways, the Russian and Chinese presidents hope to strike deals with Trump on dividing the globe into spheres of influence. Thus, a theory is gaining momentum that the three leaders will shake hands in what media outlets are calling “new Yalta.”
It was in Yalta 80 years ago that US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Soviet Union leader Joseph Stalin and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill met to push for a post-war settlement.
Roosevelt sought to abolish imperialist policies by creating the United Nations. And he achieved this on paper. In practice, however, he and Churchill accepted an agreement that US experts regarded as a defeat, the Russians as a major political victory, and the Poles, the Baltics and others as a “betrayal.”
Today’s world is moving smoothly towards a new Yalta between Trump, Putin and Xi. When world institutions, such as the International Criminal Court and the UN General Assembly, prove themselves incapable of resolving international disputes and punishing crimes against humanity, a position of power comes to the fore.
If world leaders fail to agree on the division of influence, as was the case in Yalta, the world is doomed to new conflicts. Imperialism survives, and it is precisely what drives modern politics.
