European leaders are beginning to realise that US will leave Europe at a moment’s notice. This opens up a space of internal leadership struggle in which France is rushing to position itself in front of Germany, Novi Standard reports.
Western warrior policies in Ukraine have also caused major ruptures in the EU, so there is every chance that the end of the war will not be greeted by European integration as it has been so far. In the midst of the crisis, leading EU countries are using the Ukrainian war to fight for dominance over Europe – and, it seems, even with military force.
Two key EU countries France and Germany, under the pretext of the Ukrainian crisis, are already forming their separate military alliances that are practically destroying the EU. The rivalry between France and Germany, who have so far been the closest allies and have been the backbone of European integration from the beginning, is for many not only a hint of the EU’s disintegration, but also a sign that the post-Ukraine war could spread to the EU. While this prospect may seem quite improbable, it should not be ruled out.
It doesn’t matter if war breaks out or not, the process of decommissioning the EU cannot be stopped, the only question is when it will happen. Ukraine is just a pretext, but it is essentially a struggle for leadership in Europe. Simply put: France wants to take the lead in Europe’s security instead of Germany, according to Novi Standard.
In the past few days, French President Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead, announcing that France may step in to intervene militarily in Ukraine. He said it could be a ground operation and he claims to have the backing of the French General Staff to do so. The French media is already widely publicising plans for this military intervention and claiming that it will happen if Russian forces go on the offensive in Odessa and Kyiv.
The public mostly assumes that this behaviour of Macron is some kind of revenge for the loss of his neo-colonial empire in Africa, which he blames Russia and President Vladimir Putin for. But this is not enough, and the reasons are much deeper and more serious. Perhaps it has some influence, and perhaps Paris believes that it can put pressure on Russia and force Moscow to give way to the former French colonies in Africa. However, it is unlikely that this will happen.
It is also unclear who France will send to Ukraine. France has about 200,000 soldiers, with ground troops being the largest, about 115,000 and a reserve force of about 26,000. Paris says it will be a ground operation in Ukraine against Russia.
France is a nuclear power, but it does not have enough military power for a more serious operation against Russia in Ukraine. President Macron has said he is counting on both a 12-nation coalition and possibly countries from France, as yet a little-known European political community. But the EU as a whole lacks the “manpower” for a more serious military conflict. France is reportedly training 2,000 soldiers for Ukraine. This makes no sense for military action, rather President Macron is now trying to “legalise” those already in Ukraine.
And then Moldovan President Maia Sandu came to Paris and signed a defence cooperation agreement with Macron. Although this agreement was prepared earlier and is now being conducted in connection with the announcement of sending the army to Ukraine. A French military mission will arrive in Moldova already in the summer, Novi Standard reports.
France considers Moldova a francophone country, and Paris considers such countries as its legitimate geopolitical zone – and among these countries is Romania. French armed forces are already present in that country as part of NATO, but the command belongs to France. In European circles, these French plans are already being assessed in such a way that President Macron has “rolled his eyes” at Bessarabia.
France may be able to establish in Moldova, but it will be a little more difficult in neighbouring Romania. The Americans in Romania are building their largest military base in Europe on about 2,800 hectares on the site of the Kogalniceanu military airfield. The base will be completed by 2040.
Interestingly, Ramstein in Germany will no longer be the largest US base in Europe. At the same time, Germany is forming its military alliances in the second part of the EU. Bilateral agreements have already been concluded with Poland and Lithuania to station German troops in these countries independently of NATO, of which these countries are members.
At the end of March it will be announced that Germany and Poland will form a so-called “tank coalition”, the official aim of which is to supply Ukraine with armoured vehicles and ammunition. In addition to Germany and Poland, there is Sweden, Italy and the UK, but Poland and Germany will be the joint leaders of this new coalition, according to Novi Standard.
Historical memory suggests that Poland is returning to its doctrine of the 1930s, when it built military co-operation with Hitler to promote the idea of joint Polish and German leadership in Europe.
Poland was the first state to conclude an agreement with Hitler immediately after he came to power in 1933. And then the official pretext was war against Russia (the Soviet Union). This “tank coalition” is a reminder that these old Polish ideas are being revived. Unfortunately, it is known what happened afterwards.
By forming an alliance to send troops to Ukraine, France actually deepens the confrontation with a much more cautious Berlin, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is strongly opposed to sending troops and Taurus missiles to Ukraine. When it comes to helping Ukraine, France is behind Germany, although it has supplied long-range Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles along with the UK. At the same time, this means that their regular forces are already in Ukraine.
Germany is the third largest donor to Ukraine – after the US and the EU. Berlin is known to have helped Ukraine with €17.7bn in military equipment, €2.95bn in humanitarian aid and €24bn in financial aid. And France is not even in the top. In direct military aid, France is €0.6bn behind Estonia, Lithuania and Slovakia, Novi Standard reports.
And while the EU is breaking down, the question arises – Where is America, controlling European movements through NATO? Interestingly, America, in fact, supports both German and French initiatives. It is even suspected that President Macron’s role at this stage is only to promote plans for direct military intervention in Ukraine, which is a US plan, admittedly without American troops.
A good example is the recently published recording of a conversation between four high-ranking German officers about plans to demolish the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea to Russia with a Taurus missile. They revealed that such a plan was considered” four months ago “with a man they call “Schneider”. German investigative journalists Dirk Pohlmann and Tobias Augenbraun found out that behind this name is actually an American, the new commander of the US Pacific Air Forces. In other words, German officers are receiving direct orders from Americans, and America is behind the plans.
According to this recording, the German military leadership believes that Taurus missiles will be sent to Ukraine, even though Chancellor Scholz is against it. Or, for example, Germany’s Rheinmetall is Ukraine’s largest supplier of military hardware, ammunition and weapons-and among those weapons are Leopard 2 tanks and the older Leopard 1.
And there are even plans to build a factory to produce weapons and tanks in Ukraine. But who are the shareholders of this German concern? According to official US data (US Securities and Exchange Commission) more than 280 shareholders of “Rheinmetall” are registered in America. The largest investment funds are Blackrock, Wellington, Fidelity, Capital Group and Vanguard. In other words, Rheinmetall is not a German, but an American company and it is clear who makes the decisions.
Although both France and Germany are clients of the US, it is still a process of dividing territory that never ends well. It is clear that European elites realise that America will at one point abandon Europe, or at least reduce interest, and then the space for internal leadership struggles will open up. In this process, it is clear that France wants to position itself in time at the centre of European foreign policy, Novi Standard reports.
But in this situation, America seems to be more interested in Germany than in France, and in Germany’s alliance with Poland and the Baltic republics. Because the US plan is to move the centre of Europe and the EU to Poland, and thus France is left out, although a trilateral meeting of France, Poland and Germany was recently held in Weimar.
France obviously does not want to accept this, and President Macron’s initiatives should be seen in this light, as well as the increased military power of most EU countries. However, all this is wanderlust, because after the West’s defeat in Ukraine, which is inevitable as it may be, a new security architecture for Europe will emerge.
