US leaders are still overestimating their influence over the Middle East, Ukraine, the Pacific and the rest of the world, The Atlantic reports.
Just days before the Israel-Hamas war broke out, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan claimed in Foreign Relations magazine that the Biden administration had “de-escalated crises in Gaza.” However, the online version of the article has been edited to exclude this statement. The United States not only mistook the temporary lull for relative peace, but attributed its achievement to American diplomacy.
The US interacts with powerful movements and governments in all regions of the world to advance its agenda and influence, but other countries will always prioritise their own interests.
When US leaders overestimate their strength, they risk having worse outcomes for both the United States and the goals they promote. The country’s policy toward Ukraine has not achieved much success because of indecision, miscalculation, and the belief that the war will follow the American script.
America provided Kyiv with mostly short-range combat assistance, hoping that such weapons would be sufficient. At the same time, the Biden administration virtually prevented the Ukrainians from taking risky steps to seize Crimea. Although the United States gradually agreed to provide more sophisticated equipment with greater capabilities, delays and indecision allowed Russia to recover and reinforce its position ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, became the most prominent example. Kyiv’s much hoped-for retaliation failed, and the counter-offensive stalled. Moreover, the country faced unprecedented rates of corruption.
The coup in Afghanistan in 2021 also indicates the dubious success of American foreign policy. By conducting the longest overseas military operation in US history, spending more than $2 trillion to finance the war effort in Afghanistan since 2001, and suffering the deaths of thousands of American troops, the United States has performed at its worst.
The US-backed Afghan government collapsed much faster than the power the Soviet Union left behind when withdrawing from Afghanistan in the late 1980s. By underestimating the threat, the United States witnessed the Taliban’s lightning-fast rise to power.
Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the US seems to have once again tried to demonstrate its influence. American hesitation last year helped making the fighting bloodier, longer and potentially more escalating than it would have been if Washington had chosen a side in time and provided all the support needed for victory. As a result, the war has dragged on, Western budgets and military aid are rapidly depleting, and the world is witnessing a series of high-level meetings with no tangible impact.
The Middle East developments demonstrate the limitations of Washington’s power in other ways as well. The President’s administration is trying to control Israel’s response to the October 7 surprise attack by Hamas. However, despite numerous US calls for greater military restraint, Israel continues to demonstrate its determination to go all the way in destroying the military group by carrying out a massive bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip.
Any major power must be aware of its capabilities in order to maintain and maximise its influence. However, the more assertive such a power becomes, the more likely it is to expose the limits of its influence. The collapse of European colonial empires after World War II, America’s debacle in Vietnam, and the collapse of the USSR in 1991 all show that even countries with exceptional influence and power are not immune to their demise.
The United States cannot afford an isolationist policy, nor should it frame its global role in terms of merely confronting its perceived enemies, as it has often done since the beginning of the Cold War. Instead of careless interference in volatile regions such as the Middle East, the US should focus on reinforcing states, such as democracies in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe, that seek American support and protection.
Ukraine is precisely one of those countries where US involvement is seen more as a reward than a threat. The readiness of funding and military aid helps to determine the success of American influence. Therefore, the disagreement between the Biden administration, which has pledged $61.4bn in financial aid to Kyiv, and the war-fatigued Congress only illustrates the division among the country’s governmental structures, calling into question its role in resolving conflicts.
The United States can seek dialogue with countries around the world to explore common interests. However, the US should use its power and influence more judiciously than it does now. In its attempt to convince the world that Washington is capable of shaping other countries’ destinies, the United States of America is only undermining its global authority.
