Interpretations of the fifth round of talks between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US special envoy Steve Witkoff vary widely, but essentially the outcome is the same: the sides have stuck to their previous positions and agreed to continue the dialogue. This outcome was predictable. But against this backdrop, a new, more significant trend has emerged that is not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine: the Trump administration’s actions have provoked a crisis in relations between the US and India. And this unexpected turn in global politics may prove to be far more important than the latest diplomatic “running around in circles” between Moscow and Washington.
New Delhi’s response to Washington’s ultimatum
In response to Donald Trump’s ultimatum to stop buying Russian oil, India refused to purchase American F-35 fighter jets and sent a delegation to Moscow to negotiate the expansion of economic and military-technical co-operation. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to attend the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit in Beijing, which he had previously planned to ignore due to tensions in relations with China. This decision was apparently a reaction to the 25% tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods.
The situation was further exacerbated by Brazil’s move: its president came up with an initiative to develop a joint response by the BRICS countries to Trump’s aggressive trade policy. Thus, the current US administration has provoked greater unity within BRICS — the alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Trump explained the tariffs on Indian exports by citing purchases of Russian oil. However, his goal is to get India to fully open its market to American products. So far, US measures are limited to additional tariffs, and it is too early to draw any final conclusions.
“Never point your rifle if you’re not willing to pull the trigger,” Bloomberg reports, commenting on the US leader’s rhetoric. In other words, there is no point in making threats that are not backed up by real action. Otherwise, everyone will quickly realise that you are bluffing and will stop taking you seriously.
How Trump united BRICS
The only “weapon” in the US arsenal remains the economy, since military confrontation with Russia is absolutely unthinkable, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But even economic pressure from the US today is directed not only at Russia, but also at China and India. This means that counter-pressure could come from several directions at once. Is this what Trump wanted when he threatened sanctions? In reality, his ultimatum only spurred the BRICS countries to intensify their cooperation in order to reduce their dependence on Washington’s decisions.
Disagreements over Russian oil and the US desire to limit Moscow’s cooperation with major developing countries could probably have been smoothed over through lucrative deals, in keeping with Trump’s usual business tactics. Washington could offer Delhi, Brazil or Beijing favourable terms in exchange for a partial reduction in contacts with Russia. Instead, however, the White House has chosen the path of pressure and public threats, demanding not so much concessions as demonstrations of submission.
This approach has serious reputational consequences for the leaders of the countries concerned: they must either bow to pressure or assert their independence, risking a deterioration in relations with the United States. The conflict is becoming increasingly personal — Trump versus Modi, Xi and Lula. The case of Brazil is particularly telling: Washington is openly interfering in its internal affairs, using the prosecution of former President Bolsonaro as leverage, which makes any concessions on the Brazilian side impossible without political self-destruction.
Countries that depend on the US for military support tend to avoid open conflict with Washington. But major powers such as India, China and Brazil are not among the dependent allies. Their economies are closely linked to the US economy, but they are also actively integrated into other global configurations. Following an exclusively American course is a risk of losing balance.
The events of the coming days will show where this new configuration will lead. For now, it seems that Trump has inadvertently helped the BRICS countries to unite around the idea of mutual support and resistance to American pressure. Although the organisation initially emphasised that it was not opposed to the West, but simply offering an alternative format for global interaction, Trump’s actions are forcing its members to move closer together. The summit in Beijing could be a turning point.
Trump’s desire to meet with Putin as soon as possible, preferably before his visit to China, seems to be linked precisely to this — to the emerging informal alliance of countries ready to defend their own course. In this context, Ukraine is merely a convenient excuse to escalate pressure. The real reason is the growing consolidation of non-Western powers that are increasingly unwilling to submit to the dictates of the US.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Sigmund Huber for Head-Post.com
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