Ursula von der Leyen will be handing out European posts in the autumn. More than half of the 27 EU member states have already announced who they want to send as European commissioner, but we don’t yet know what positions they will take up, Euronews reports.
Countries may favour one policy area or another – and, traditionally, many have said they want their top official in Brussels to take the top economic portfolio. But many will end up disappointed. President Ursula von der Leyen has enormous power to allocate policy issues and distribute them to her subordinates.
Many of the positions she appoints will be given fancy titles like executive vice president, or exotic topics like demography. But beware: these clever honourable titles may only serve to disguise irrelevant work.
What really matters are the positions that confer power and influence. Heading one of the directorates-general of the EU executive gives a commissioner control over hundreds of officials who determine EU law. Even better if it is a portfolio in which Brussels wields substantial power, or a likely political hotbed.
Which portfolios are mandatory and which are symbolic? Will your country’s commissioner shape the future of the EU or spend five years locked in a broom cupboard? Which is better – handing out anti-trust fines worth billions of euros or dictating fish quotas?
For answers to these and other questions, check out the full, albeit subjective, list of EU Commission portfolios, starting with the most coveted, according to Euronews.
1. God Level: Profile and power
President, foreign and security policy, competition, economic and financial affairs
The highest posts have already been given to EU leaders – Germany’s von der Leyen will head the Commission and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas will become the bloc’s chief diplomat. These positions are associated with fame and power. But they are followed by several influential economic portfolios – starting with the antitrust department, which some see as Brussels’ main job.
The EU’s antitrust chief has broad powers to block mergers, fine big companies and ban market-distorting state subsidies, and unlike most other EU commissioners, he does not need to agree decisions with governments or MEPs.
The Danish incumbent, Margrethe Vestager, has targeted big tech, bringing cases worth billions of euros over alleged anti-competitive behaviour by Google and the low tax rates enjoyed by Apple. She has also presided over unprecedented and controversial payouts to companies affected by the COVID-19 blockchain.
The portfolio will remain in the spotlight given von der Leyen’s promises of a “new approach” to merger policy. Vestager’s current role is linked to responsibility for the digital economy, and we will be watching to see if her successor will be given an additional role such as promoting industrial policy or European strategic autonomy.
Equally influential is the commissioner entrusted with the EU’s powerful DG ECFIN unit, which co-ordinates national economic policy and produces dire inflation and growth forecasts, Euronews reports.
Eight countries have received a formal warning from Brussels to rein in high deficits, and the new economy commissioner will oversee the politically painful tax hikes and spending cuts they will have to make.
2. Rising stars
Enlargement, defence, industry, digital technology
Some topics seem to be guaranteed high political status in the coming years.
Von der Leyen’s policy recommendations, published in mid-June, indicate a renewed interest in industrial policy as the bloc needs to restore its competitiveness.
The defence commissioner promised by von der Leyen in the wake of the military conflict in Ukraine will play an important role and will have to have difficult conversations with the bloc’s national armed forces.
Leading the EU’s enlargement process with new members will also be crucial. That commissioner will have to determine whether Ukraine and the many other candidates in line to join the EU meet detailed and rigorous political criteria, according to Euronews.
And while the bloc has already agreed important laws to regulate artificial intelligence and digital services, the online economy is likely to continue to pose challenges for policymakers, for which the digital commissioner will be responsible.
3. The golden oldies
Energy, trade, climate, migration, justice
Whatever the splendour of the recent past, some portfolios have lost their lustre in recent years, fading into the background after a period of dominance.
The EU has substantial power to negotiate trade agreements on behalf of its members and impose punitive tariffs on Chinese goods deemed to be dumped on the European market.
But its influence may be waning as negotiations with South America’s Mercosur group and India have been slow to develop – although a second Trump presidency would see a high-profile EU debate on how to respond to protectionism.
In the days of Jean-Claude Juncker’s Commission, which ran until 2019, the post of energy commissioner meant something: leading the Clean Energy Act was a huge responsibility and greatly advanced the career of Slovakian Maroš Šefčovič, Euronews reports.
Energy policy had its moments under the last mandate, such as when the Ukrainian military conflict disrupted gas supplies in 2022. But the incumbent, Kadri Simson, was relatively anonymous; whether her successor will raise the profile remains to be seen.
On climate change, the EU has yet to implement some rather controversial ideas, such as the Green Deal.
But it’s a far cry from the fine days when von der Leyen was dominant in her first term; her centre-right European People’s Party has clearly had a change of heart as sentiment has shifted towards support for clean industry.
Migration will remain a totemically important issue for the right, but the flagship policy has just been passed and real power in the EU is lacking. The justice portfolio, currently held by Belgian Didier Reynders, is a mixed picture, including data privacy and consumer protection.
4. Middle of the table: Big money, small politics
Agriculture, cohesion, budget, neighbourhood
These portfolios have a lot of money but little power.
They are mostly focused on existing, albeit expensive, programmes: cohesion and agriculture account for about two-thirds of the EU’s €170 billion a year spending, but the policies have already been set by EU lawmakers.
Their finest hour will come in mid-2025, when the Commission has to present a new proposal for the long-term future of the EU budget – and again if farmers get fired up again.
Similarly, we see little role for officials from the EU’s neighbouring countries, especially if they will be competing with colleagues in charge of foreign policy, enlargement and the Mediterranean.
5. “I wish I was a minister.”
Home affairs, environment, tax, financial services, health and food safety, employment and social rights, transport, fisheries
These job descriptions sound awesome and very ministerial – except for the additional detail that you don’t actually sit in the government of a country. Many large countries will get these portfolios and may even be excited at the prospect of getting a job that at least seems important.
Don’t be seduced: EU competence in these areas is either non-existent or politically unattractive. Food safety, anyone?
Many dream of gaining power over issues such as financial services and social policy, and these portfolios cost nothing – but neither has attracted much political attention during the last mandate, and this is likely to continue to be the case, Euronews reports.
Under EU rules, fiscal proposals are usually blocked by national vetoes, so the Commission’s portfolio on tax and customs union will only be tempting for those politicians who want to put “technical reforms of value added tax” on their CV.
Nevertheless, the right personality could get some good publicity from these roles or use them as a springboard for something bigger – as Nicolas Schmit, the Luxembourg-born Commissioner for Employment and Social Rights who was the Socialists’ candidate to head the European Commission, did.
6. The totem and the token
Housing, demography, forward-looking, the Mediterranean and the “EU way of life”
When von der Leyen runs out of portfolios to offer, she will get creative. The recipients will be enthusiastically grateful until they realise what their evocative title, which almost certainly means nothing, really means.
This explains some of the unconventional ideas in her current college, which includes Commissioners for Foresight, Demography and European Lifestyles, whatever that means.
It looks like it will continue into her next term when she has promised commissioners responsible for housing, which is an important and totemic policy issue that has nothing to do with the EU, and for the Mediterranean, which is the sea.
7. A naughty step
Crisis management, international co-operation, research, inter-institutional relations, human resources, education and culture
There are several prizes lurking in von der Leyen’s clutch: the kind that commissioners are warned they will get if they misbehave. These are the least desirable portfolios, mostly dumped on smaller countries or combined with something more interesting.
Those in crisis management or international co-operation will get good air miles and content for Instagram, but not much else.
The EU Research Commissioner runs the Horizon Europe programme, but its budget is much smaller than cohesion funds or farm subsidies, and it does little for policy-making. Similarly, Education, Youth and Culture offers a glamorous link to the Erasmus student exchange scheme, but offers little of substance, according to Euronews.
Those tasked with human resources or managing inter-institutional relations with the European Parliament and Council will find the role purely inward-looking, without much glamour. Others, however, will find their portfolios empty-handed.
Former Commission President José Manuel Barroso famously set up the multilingualism unit when Romania joined the bloc in the middle of his term; creating anything more substantial would have meant stripping someone else of responsibilities.
Perhaps that portfolio will be revived if some rogue government gets into Ursula’s bad books.
