Italy’s conservative Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, faces a crucial political test as a two-day referendum on judicial reform begins this Sunday. What was initially framed as a technical adjustment to the justice system has evolved into a wider assessment of her leadership both domestically and internationally.
A referendum beyond judicial reform
The referendum has highlighted political divisions and brought the centre-left opposition together, turning the vote into a symbolic measure of Meloni’s influence just over a year before national elections. Recent polls suggest the outcome remains uncertain, with the “No” campaign gaining ground in a closely contested and polarised environment. Voter turnout could prove decisive.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and polling expert at YouTrend, commented that a rejection of the reforms would carry substantial political significance.
“A possible ‘No’ result would weaken Meloni’s perception of invincibility and give the centre-left opposition an opportunity to present itself as a credible alternative,” he told the Associated Press.
Meloni’s strategy and the debate over judicial independence
Initially, Meloni avoided directly linking her political image to the referendum, cautious that a defeat could undermine her authority at home and abroad. She currently leads Italy’s most stable government in years and has gained recognition among European allies as a capable and charismatic leader. A successful referendum would further consolidate her position both domestically and internationally.
As the vote approached and polls showed a tightening race, Meloni adopted a more direct approach and openly supported the “Yes” campaign. She has criticised aspects of the judiciary for obstructing government efforts on migration and security, warning that a failure to pass the reform could empower unaccountable judicial groups and compromise public safety.
Her remarks have prompted criticism from magistrates and the centre-left, who argue that the proposed changes would undermine judicial independence and constitutional safeguards.
Key proposals and political implications
The referendum focuses on long-debated reforms intended to restructure Italy’s judiciary. Key proposals include separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors, preventing them from moving between roles, and reforming the High Judicial Council, which oversees appointments and disciplinary matters. The reform suggests dividing the Council into three chambers and altering the selection process from internal elections to a lottery among eligible judges and prosecutors.
Observers note that the referendum also carries international significance. Meloni’s alignment with US President Donald Trump, once politically advantageous, has become more contentious amid public concern over US and Israeli policies in the Middle East.
A defeat would not require Meloni to resign; her term runs until 2027, and she has repeatedly stated her intention to serve it in full. However, it could weaken her credibility within the European Union, where she is generally seen as a stabilising figure in a volatile political landscape.
Supporters argue the changes would modernise Italy’s slow court system and increase accountability, while critics maintain that the reforms fail to address key issues and could compromise judicial independence. Nicola Gratteri, Naples’ chief prosecutor and a veteran anti-Mafia magistrate, offered a pointed critique:
“I do not believe this government has implemented reforms to make trials more effective. Instead, it has made it harder to address crimes against public administration and tackle corruption and white-collar offences.”
As Italians prepare to vote, the referendum represents one of the defining moments of Meloni’s premiership, potentially influencing both the justice system and the broader trajectory of her government.
