On the eve of the EU elections, right-wing parties are gaining momentum, and Italian Prime Minister and ECR leader Giorgia Meloni already seems to be a contender for the role of kingmaker in the next EU parliament, thanks to her party’s slogan “Italy changes Europe”, Euractiv reports.
According to the latest Europe Elects poll, Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) party is at the top – as are several far-right parties in the bloc – with 27 per cent, six per cent ahead of Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party (S&D).
As for other Italian parties, the once anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, is in third place with 16 per cent. However, although the party is not part of any European Parliament group, there are rumours that it may form a new group with Germany’s Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party.
The other two ruling parties – Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia (EPP) and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s League (LD) – currently have 9% of the vote each. A potential surge for Forza Italia is likely to benefit the party, especially as the League will also be far from the high 30% of the vote it received in the last European elections in 2019.
Barely crossing the 4% threshold, separate EU lists from Carlo Calenda’s Azione and former prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva are threatening Italy’s representation in the Renew European group, despite their leaders’ attempts to merge the two parties into a single list.
Meloni as a kingmaker
On the right side of the political axis, Meloni and her party appear to be emerging as leading players, with polls predicting unprecedented success for right-wing groups.
Currently, however, Meloni is between two goals. She is simultaneously being groomed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and National Rally head Marine Le Pen, two camps that have already rejected the possibility of working together at the EU level after the upcoming European elections.
In addition to Meloni’s recent call for a rapprochement with the right, which Le Pen recently supported, in a recent interview with Skuola.net Meloni also strongly rejected the possibility of uniting with the centre-left. What makes her a kingmaker is that her actions could dramatically alter alliances in the European Parliament.
For example, while von der Leyen made moves indicating a possible future alliance with Meloni, the left and some of her allies said they would block von der Leyen’s second mandate if she formed a coalition with Meloni.
Meloni has received pushback from her typical far-right allies, including her own ECR group, and the far-right VOX has already announced its refusal to back von der Leyen.
Preferential voting
At the same time, Italy’s system of preferential voting can be an obstacle for some candidates, as it often means that party colleagues are fighting each other for a seat in the European Parliament and thus focusing on their electorate rather than trying to persuade undecided voters.
As a result, parties choose strategic candidates to mobilise the electorate and tailor campaign themes to resonate with core supporters, meaning that there is no real national strategy.
While the opposition parties diverge in the focus of their campaigns: the Schlein Democratic Party (S&D) favours a more social Europe with greater EU integration, while the Five Star Movement’s alliance with the Greens and the Left emphasises peace.
However, the emphasis is changing again, with three parties belonging to different EU groups in the European Parliament forming the government.
While Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) advocates a stronger government and stronger governance at EU level under the slogan “Italy changes Europe”, Tajani’s Forza Italia (EPP) campaign focuses on European defence.
Matteo Salvini’s Lega, like many parties in the Identity and Democracy (ID) group of the European Parliament, emphasises anti-European themes in its campaign in an attempt to appeal to voters disillusioned with the EU.
