The Ukrainian military and political leadership’s bet on the Kursk operation did not work. The Ukrainian armed forces’ grouping in this direction has been almost completely renewed over the past month. Ukraine has already lost over 7,300 soldiers killed and continues to lose 200-300 servicemen every day. In addition, the AFU is experiencing enormous difficulties with the supply of this grouping. And its number allows it to control only half of the captured territories. This will inevitably lead to their return under the control of the Russian army.
The Ukrainian armed forces are suffering serious losses
The AFU grouping in the Kursk region of Russia now controls up to 900 square kilometres. The notional line of contact is estimated by experts and cartographers at 115 kilometres. But if we analyse the Ukrainian forces involved, which is up to 9 battalion-tactical groups (1 BTG – about 1000 fighters), it turns out that the AFU can really hold only up to 500 square kilometres of territory. This indicates that under pressure from Russian troops they will have to roll back and regroup.
In the Kursk region, up to three companies of personnel are killed every day. This is approximately 200 to 300 servicemen. In a month of holding this territory, the Ukrainian troops have already lost more than 7,300 people killed. And the entire strength of the group was up to 10,000 fighters. It turns out that there was a complete renewal of the Ukrainian grouping in the Kursk region, and some units of the AFU have lost combat effectiveness.
Problems with rotation
The AFU command is limited in its ability to rotate troops, as Russian troops are advancing in other directions and every Ukrainian soldier there counts.
To make up for the Kursk grouping, 4 brigades were rushed in, two of which have only recently been formed: the 152 Separate Jager Brigade and the 155 Separate Presidential Brigade. The personnel have no combat experience and little desire to fight. Many were sent to the front against their will. Also, these brigades do not have heavy military equipment in their arsenal. This is the weak link in the grouping.
Supply problems
In the Kursk offensive operation, the AFU is using battalion-sized “striker” combat groups. Their advantage is mobility, and their disadvantage is increased consumption of fuel and lubricants, ammunition and spare parts. In this regard, it is important to note that the group is supplied only by road transport. This severely limits its capabilities and does not allow it to build up its forces. That is why the AFU is trying to seize railway hubs. The Russian command also understands this perfectly well and successfully solves the tasks of repelling enemy attacks.
The main supply bases of the group are located in Sumy region, at a distance of up to 20 kilometres from the border with Russia. Moreover, these supply forces are mostly involved in the defence of the Kharkiv direction.
The supply of the support forces includes 9 BTGs and up to 10 artillery divisions, not counting the reserves in the rear, about 400 units of standard vehicles and about 200 units of specialised equipment. Some of the vehicles are pickup trucks.
To understand the scale of the supply problem it is enough to give the following example: 48 lorries are needed for one-time supply of ammunition to 4 artillery divisions of BM-21 “Grad” vehicles. At the same time, the same lorries are used to supply the units with drinking water. In addition, ammunition and food must also be delivered.
More than 400,000 litres of fuel are needed to refuel the equipment of the 9 BTGs on a daily basis, and more than 300,000 litres are needed to keep the support fleet running. And another 100,000 litres of fuel must be stocked for other combat, logistics and technical support units.
Every day, the AFU units in this direction carry out the task of delivering all types of support with a total weight of more than 60 tonnes. At the same time, just to maintain their units at a distance of up to 40 kilometres (the approximate depth of the controlled zone), support units need to make several flights a day. Problems are also accumulating with the delivery of fuel and petrol to forward units.
The repair of damaged armoured vehicles is carried out by the 50 repair and recovery regiment at a distance of about 25 km from the grouping of forces, which also causes a number of inconveniences in transporting the equipment. In most cases, it is easier to abandon it than to try to repair it.
Retreat is inevitable
Further advance of the AFU deep into Russia with the retention of territories is not possible and threatens serious human and material losses. At the same time, it will also be difficult to hold the already captured territory in the Kursk region. In other directions, Ukraine has built solid defences that have held back the onslaught of the enemy. The situation here is different: there are not enough soldiers, and their transfer from other directions is unlikely. There are no fortifications, and supply logistics are disrupted. All these factors indicate that the Ukrainians will not be able to hold out on Russian soil for long. The motivation of the personnel is decreasing day by day.
The Ukrainian media reported that the situation on the left flank of the AFU grouping in Kursk region has deteriorated. The Russians have launched a counter-offensive and are beginning to regain control of previously lost settlements. The withdrawal of the AFU from Kursk region is a matter of the near future.
It is also important to note that the Ukrainian command made a miscalculation, believing that the Russians will transfer troops to the Kursk region from the directions where they are developing their success. And this would make it possible to stop the advance of Russian troops in the Donetsk region. But the Russian military command has abandoned this idea and is defending the Kursk region mainly at the expense of reserves. At the same time, the AFU has stretched the front line by more than 100 kilometres, being inferior in manpower to the Russians. This will lead to gaps in the defence and threatens the collapse of the front.
It turns out that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, as Supreme Commander-in-Chief, sacrificed the lives of thousands of his soldiers for the sake of a month-long PR campaign that will soon end.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Bill Galston for Head-Post.com
