A spokesman for Ukraine’s military command has warned that the army has already been forced to scale back some operations due to delays in Western support.
General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said that Ukrainian troops faced an acute shortage of ammunition along “the entire front line”, which poses a “big problem” for further combat operations. Kyiv has continually asked for more weapons, including ammunition, but tens of billions of pounds of military aid has been delayed due to political disagreements in the US and EU. This delay is visible on the battlefield. He said in an interview:
“There’s a problem with ammunition, especially post-Soviet (shells) – that’s 122mm, 152mm. And today these problems exist across the entire frontline. The volumes that we have today are not sufficient for us today, given our needs. So, we’re redistributing it. We’re replanning tasks that we had set for ourselves and making them smaller because we need to provide for them.”
Ukraine depends heavily on Western support, with the US providing much of the military aid. The tens of billions of dollars Washington has already provided in military aid has gone to provide more than two million artillery shells – Ukrainian troops use thousands of them a day on the front line – 60,000 rockets, 76 tanks, 35,000 grenade launchers and small arms and more than 400 million rounds of small arms and grenade ammunition.
Because of domestic political disagreements over the number of migrants and asylum seekers crossing the US southern border, Republicans in Congress are delaying another $60bn (£47bn) in aid. They first blocked aid last month and Kyiv fears it will lead to a wider loss of support. The prospect of US funding getting through Congress before the end of the year looks unlikely, but on Monday the Senate adjourned for a year-end recess to hold more talks.
General Tarnavsky, commander of Task Force Tavria, played an important role in a major offensive in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia this year, which yielded little success against extensive trenches and minefields.
Ukraine is keen to increase its own production of weapons and, in particular, ammunition, but this will take months or even years. Problems with ammunition supplies from Western countries existed before the latest political wrangling, but the latest delays make them even more acute. The EU has pledged to send one million artillery shells by March 2024, but so far only 480,000 have been delivered or are expected to be delivered.
Washington has sent Ukraine more than two million 155-millimetre shells for use in Western-made artillery systems, but its own stocks have begun to run low. The US began ramping up ammunition production last year when it became clear that the war would drag on much longer than anticipated – nearly two years already. But mass production of munitions to acceptable levels will take “years,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN earlier this year.
An Estonian defence ministry report said Kyiv needs at least 200,000 artillery shells a month. Admiral Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, said of the West’s ammunition stockpile during a discussion at the Warsaw Security Forum in early October:
“The bottom of the barrel is now visible.”
