A new round of talks between Iran and the “E3” (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on Tehran’s nuclear programme will take place in Geneva on Tuesday, Iranian state television reported on Monday.
A representative of the European Union will also take part in the talks at the deputy foreign minister level. This meeting is a last-minute attempt to find a diplomatic solution and avoid escalation. It comes amid a tough ultimatum issued by European countries. They warned that if a “satisfactory solution” is not found by the end of August, they will launch a “snapback” mechanism to resume all UN sanctions against Iran.
The talks are taking place after a Friday phone call between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his European counterparts. Tensions have risen sharply after Iran suspended co-operation with the IAEA following the June war with Israel, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei recently rejected the possibility of direct talks with the US.
The Geneva summit is a last-ditch attempt to save the 2015 nuclear deal from total collapse. Both sides are under enormous pressure. The “E3” does not want to trigger the “snapback” mechanism, as this could push Iran to build a nuclear bomb, but it cannot ignore Tehran’s violations.
Iran, for its part, does not want a full resumption of UN sanctions, which could destroy its economy. Therefore, this meeting is more of an attempt at “crisis management” than a real breakthrough.
Iran will likely try to buy time by offering some minimal concessions to give the Europeans a reason not to impose sanctions. However, without direct dialogue with the US and the supreme leader’s agreement to real compromises, any agreement reached in Geneva is likely to be temporary and fragile.
