North-western Europe began May with a mini heatwave that set a temperature record in London, and warm, dry weather is expected to prevail in the region this month.
After Ireland set record April temperatures earlier this week, the British Meteorological Office reported that London got a new May record of 28°C on Thursday. There is a small chance that temperatures in the city could reach 30°C, which would be the earliest this threshold has been reached since records began in 1860. According to the London Fire Brigade, there is also an increased risk of wildfires in the British capital.
In Paris, temperatures could reach 29°C on Thursday and 27°C in Berlin on Friday. According to forecasts by the Meteorological Office and data from Atmospheric G2, the high pressure that caused the first heatwave of the year in the region will ease over the weekend, but above-average temperatures are expected for May.
Climate change impacts
According to Meteorological Service meteorologist Aidan McGivern, temperatures in Europe are rising due to climate change. Last year was the hottest year on record for the continent, and since the 1980s, the region has been warming twice as fast as the global average.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the warmest May-April period on record,” McGivern said in a forecast briefing.
While the UK, France and Germany are enjoying summer weather, temperatures in the region will drop below normal next week, and May will be cooler and wetter in other parts of Europe.
According to forecasts by Vaisala meteorologist Matthew Dross, next week will be cooler than usual in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in Northern Europe. He said heavy rain is also possible in south-western Europe in mid-May.
Dross expects cool weather in western Russia, but it will likely remain north of the world’s largest wheat-producing region, where the harvest is threatened by a sudden cold snap at the end of the season.
According to Copernicus and Atmospheric G2, the Iberian Peninsula may avoid the highest temperatures. Short periods of warming are expected in early and mid-May, but overall the month will see temperatures below average for this region.
Long-term forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show that average temperatures could remain a couple of degrees below normal in southern Europe and the Mediterranean.
However, MetDesk meteorologist Ben Davis sees signs of unusually warm weather in the Mediterranean and south-east in late May and early June. Such conditions could contribute to heatwaves and more frequent storms in Western Europe.
Oceans affected by global warming
From January to March 2025, global sea surface temperature anomalies were above average. The only exception was the equatorial part of the central Pacific Ocean. At the same time, according to forecasts, sea surface temperature deviations from normal in May to July will be close to average. This indicates a neutral state of El Niño — the Southern Oscillation.
Sea temperature anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic are also expected to decline to average values. At the same time, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic will remain slightly above median values in both the northern and southern regions.
Overall, rising water temperatures due to global warming will affect most oceans, with the exception of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This means that abnormal heat will be observed on almost all continents. An increased likelihood of such developments is predicted in North Africa, Madagascar, Asia, South America, the Caribbean, Central and North America, Australia, New Zealand and Europe.
Also in May, June and July, some countries in Eastern Europe and western Central Asia are expected to see a decrease in precipitation. An increase is forecast for the Indian subcontinent, East Asia and north-western South America.
