Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro by three percentage points in a simulated runoff, according to a new poll, although the result remains within the survey’s margin of error.
Lula received 43% support compared with 40% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest Quaest poll, commissioned by Brazilian media group Globo.
The poll surveyed 2,004 people between 10 and 13 August. Its margin of error is two percentage points, meaning the two candidates remain statistically tied.
Lula had a slightly larger lead in a similar poll conducted on 5 August, when he received 44% compared with 39% for Bolsonaro.
In a first-round scenario, Lula received 38% support while Bolsonaro recorded 31%. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4%, while Romeu Zema received 2%.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, the two candidates with the most valid votes advance to a second round if no candidate secures more than half of the vote.
Brazil election race tightens
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the leading candidate on Brazil’s political right after his father became ineligible to run.
Brazil’s top electoral court previously barred Jair Bolsonaro from running and later convicted him over a plot to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.
Lula officially launched his re-election campaign on 2 August at the Workers’ Party convention in São Paulo. He has focused part of his campaign on national sovereignty and protecting Brazil’s natural resources amid pressure from US President Donald Trump’s administration.
“I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country,” Lula said, while promising to protect Brazil’s rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control.
He also said China, the US and France would not gain access to Brazil’s mineral resources without respecting the country’s sovereignty.
“In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it does not belong,” Lula said.
Trump has maintained close ties with the Bolsonaro family. In June, Lula warned the US president against becoming involved in Brazil’s election.
“Don’t meddle in the Brazilian elections, because the Brazilian elections are a Brazilian problem, just as American elections are their business, not mine,” Lula said.
With the election around two months away, the latest polling shows a competitive race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with the incumbent holding a narrow advantage.
