Ursula von der Leyen’s speech at the European Parliament will be crucial to securing the majority she needs to be re-elected as Commission President, according to Euractiv.
The incumbent president will need a simple majority (321 votes out of 720). She currently relies on the votes of a pro-European coalition consisting of the European People’s Party (EPP), EU socialists (S&D), and liberal Renew. The Greens also expressed a willingness to join under certain conditions.
If members of these political groups vote in her favour, von der Leyen will have a safe majority. However, since the vote is secret, defections cannot be ruled out. To minimise the risk of withdrawal from the pro-European coalition, von der Leyen will have to be particularly careful during her speech before the vote.
The revision of the EU’s de facto ban on internal combustion engines from 2035 has become a clear hotspot between the three groups.
The EPP’s draft “5 Point Plan” states that the group wants to revise the ban, while the German CDU/CSU party has made it an election campaign issue. EU socialists have made maintaining the ban “a key demand” for the next European Commission.
The car industry in Europe is divided on the issue. Few carmakers are explicitly calling for a review of the ban, while companies such as Volvo, Renault and owner Fiat and other brands are calling for the ban to remain in place. The rules will be reviewed in 2026. If von der Leyen decides to relax or postpone the ban, this will be an opportunity to do so.
Agriculture issue
With farmer protests sweeping Europe in early 2024, all groups in the European Parliament have prioritised agriculture issues on their political wish list for the next mandate. However, these demands have varying degrees of importance for different groups, affecting their potential support for von der Leyen.
According to a Greens source close to the negotiations, it remains to be seen whether von der Leyen’s lack of explicit commitment to a sustainable agriculture policy will be an obstacle to a Greens/EFA deal, as discussions are still ongoing.
It’s important that the sustainability of farming practices and our food systems is not just forgotten.
Middle East
While von der Leyen is expected to regularly support Ukraine, confront China’s economic power and push for enlargement, it remains unknown how far she will go. However, too much emphasis on an even greater “geopolitical Commission” may cause confusion for some, especially after she was accused of overreaching on her stance on Israel during her first mandate.
Von der Leyen is expected to advocate that the bloc invest more in European defence over the next five years, something the EPP, the Socialists and the Liberals may agree to.
To win at least some votes from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party, von der Leyen is ready to strengthen the external dimension of the EU’s migration policy.
Meloni will reveal her position on whether she will support a second term for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after the latter presents her programme to the ECR. While some groups have already stated whether they support a second term for von der Leyen as head of the EU executive, Meloni’s ECR group is still undecided.
Von der Leyen will meet with ECR. Based on what she says, we will discuss with the other delegations, evaluate, and decide.
Speaking to the press, Meloni emphasised that her main responsibility in these negotiations was her role as prime minister and not as leader of the ECR.
I want to achieve the best possible result. Italy’s role must be recognised.
However, the group’s spokesman, Michael Strauss, announced that the delegations of Poland, Romania, and France would vote against a second term for von der Leyen.
