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Middle East tensions rise amid expectations of Iranian retaliation against Israel

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin told Defence Minister Yoav Gallant that the Israeli army should have informed Washington of its intentions to launch a strike on Damascus that killed Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of IRGC Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, Israeli media reported.

According to the report, Washington officials were concerned that the attack could have a negative impact on US forces and interests in the region.

Sources quoted in the report said advance information about the attack would have allowed the US to increase the security of its forces and assets, including its navy and air defences, to help Israel in the event of an Iranian retaliation.

The media reports that the IDF and Mossad have approved plans to attack Iran in case Israel is attacked from Iranian territory. In addition, coordination between the US and Israeli militaries has intensified.

Also, according to Israeli media citing knowledgeable sources, an attack from Iran on northern or southern Israel is expected within the next 24-48 hours. However, another source, claiming to have been briefed by Iranian officials, said that the regime has discussed a plan for an attack but has not made a final decision to carry it out.

The IRGC has submitted additional operational plans to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. An IRGC adviser said one option was to strike with medium-range missiles.

Videos simulating a strike on a nuclear reactor in Dimona, Negev, and on Haifa airport are circulating on social media linked to the IRGC. Earlier, an Iranian official said that desalination plants and power plants could be hit in the event of an Israeli retaliatory strike.

Khamenei is concerned that a direct strike on Israel could provoke what he sees as the wrong result – if Israel launches massive artillery attacks on Iranian infrastructure. “The plan of attack has been presented to the Supreme Leader and he is considering its political risk,” the adviser said.

The sources said the Iranian plan includes strikes by its proxies in Iraq and Syria, who have been launching attack drones at Israel since the war began. Iran and its proxies could also strike the Golan Heights or even the Gaza Strip to avoid hitting Israel within its internationally recognised borders.

Also considered as a type of attack is an attack on the Israeli embassy, with a focus on representation in an Arab country, to show that diplomatic ties with Israel are a costly affair.

According to foreign media reports, Israel has carried out several strikes against Iran in the past in which Iranian scientists were killed, and in 2022, the Israeli army attacked a base with attack drones in the city of Kermanshah in western Iran. Israeli drones reportedly carried out three strikes that destroyed Iranian long-range UAVs. The strike, which was reportedly carried out with the help of US intelligence, also included the destruction of a logistics centre and oil reserves at the base.

Tehran has expressed concern over the attack on its territory. It has been made clear to them that if they strike Israel, the IDF will retaliate within their borders.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister, in separate telephone conversations with his counterparts from Australia, Germany and Britain, strongly criticised the stance of these governments on the recent Israeli missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven Iranian military advisers, Iranian media reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told his Australian counterpart Penny Wong:

Some Western governments have refrained from condemning this terrorist act, which blatantly violates international laws and conventions. Instead, by persistently supporting the Zionists’ crimes, they are calling on Iran to show restraint.

The Iranian diplomat emphasised the need to exert international pressure on the Israeli government to stop the war, genocide and starvation being inflicted on the Palestinian people in Gaza.

In a telephone conversation with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, Amirabdollahian criticised Britain’s inaction in condemning the Israeli regime’s airstrike on the consular section of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s embassy in Damascus.

Also in a telephone conversation with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock, Iran’s foreign minister, said:

When the Israeli regime endangers the immunity of people and diplomatic places by violating international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense with the aim of punishing the aggressor is imperative.

Amid a steady escalation of military events in the region, more and more people are suffering from hunger due to Israel’s siege of the Gaza Strip. The head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power, said she was receiving “credible” reports that starvation was already occurring in northern Gaza.

The Israeli government has previously pledged to increase aid to Gaza, saying last week it would open another truck crossing and send more truckloads of humanitarian aid and food to the besieged enclave than ever before.

But there are few signs that those promises will be realised, and international officials say hunger is widespread in Gaza’s badly devastated north.

Persistent Israeli shelling and ground offensives in the Gaza Strip have killed more than 33,500 Palestinians and injured 74,993, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

The heightened tensions have raised international concern that Israel’s devastating war against Hamas in Gaza could spread to the rest of the Middle East.

Also on Thursday, thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews marched in a mass protest in Jerusalem over a court ruling that could revoke their exemption from compulsory service in the Israeli army, Euronews reports.

Holding signs reading “To prison, not the army,” they demonstrated outside the Israeli military recruitment centre. There were clashes between police and some of the protesters.

Last month, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled to end state subsidies for many ultra-Orthodox men who do not serve in the army. The decision could have far-reaching consequences for the government and the tens of thousands of religious men who refuse compulsory military service.

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