In 2023, migration had a huge impact on shaping public opinion. It is likely to be at the top of the EU agenda again in the new year, Deutsche Welle reports.
The number of asylum applications in EU countries has risen significantly over the past two years. In 2022, there were just under 1 million, but the European Union’s Asylum Agency predicts that this mark could be the highest since 2015, a year that saw a particularly large number of people coming to Europe and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s slogan: “We can do this!”
The EU border agency Frontex reports that more than 350,000 people seeking protection entered the EU illegally in the first 11 months of 2023.
However, according to the EU Commission, irregular migration accounts for only a small part of all migration to the 27 member states. By comparison, in 2022, almost 3.5 million people migrated to the EU as refugees with asylum status or, for example, for the purpose of education or work, according to Deutsche Welle.
Analysts suggest that in 2024, many people will continue to make dangerous and sometimes deadly journeys to Europe in search of asylum. Catherine Woollard, director of the European Council for Refugees and Exiles, told DW that record numbers of people are currently fleeing around the world. A small proportion of them will seek protection in the EU. She said:
“It is likely that next year there will be somewhere up to a million people be seeking protection [in Europe], and most of them actually in need of protection.”
David Kipp, a specialist in German and European migration policy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, said that “there is currently no sign of a change in trend” as the number of crises grows worldwide.
Nevertheless, accommodating these migrants is possible, Woollard said, citing the example of how Ukrainians who fled to the EU in 2022 were integrated. According to the European Council, some 4.2 million Ukrainians were granted temporary protection in the EU in September 2023. Woollard suggested improving the functionality of European asylum systems rather than panicking about the numbers, Deutsche Welle reports.
In mid-December, the European Parliament and 27 member states agreed a sweeping reform of EU migration and asylum policies. Before it can enter into force, member states and the EU Parliament in the first half of 2024 must formally adopt it, while technical details are finalised.
Kipp anticipates that the new laws will be in place in two to three years. In the meantime, a symbolic agreement, which he called a “political liberation” for all involved, is at the forefront.
The reform will include stricter procedures, such as changing the way asylum seekers with little chance of success are received at the border. They will be accommodated in conditions similar to detention, with no exception for families with children. The mandatory solidarity mechanism between member states is also intended to ease the burden on border countries. Under it, if a member state refuses to accept asylum seekers, it must compensate for that refusal with financial compensation or other contributions, according to Deutsche Welle.
A number of human rights organisations have sharply criticised the planned rules. Woollard is among those who fear that the already fragile right to asylum will be undermined. She said:
“One of the major challenges is that the pact won’t resolve some of the key problems. Because of the increased responsibility of the countries at the borders, which is part of the pact, we expect to see them responding by engaging in more pushbacks and denials of access at the borders.”
Kipp states that in terms of feasibility, it remains to be seen how functional the new proposals will be. For example, it is not known whether camps will have to be built to accommodate the new border procedures and how they can be organised in a humane manner.
The European Union concluded a migration agreement with Tunisia in the summer of 2023. The country was supposed to prevent migrants from crossing the Mediterranean Sea towards Europe in exchange for more than 1 billion euros (about $1.1 billion) in financial aid.
However, the agreement did not yield the expected results. Meanwhile, relations have stalled in other ways: in October, Tunisian President Kais Said rejected a multi-million dollar payment from the EU as a “handout.”
Migration diplomacy will become even more important in 2024, Kipp predicts. The deal with Tunisia is not the EU’s first attempt to encourage third countries to keep migrants out of Europe. Similar agreements have already been reached with Turkey and Libya, and another similar deal is in the pipeline with Egypt.
However, these agreements are highly controversial from a human rights perspective. Moreover, they are not very successful, noted Woollard. She added:
“There is no real interest or desire from other countries to do Europe’s job for it.”
The planned border procedures will also require further co-operation with countries that receive rejected asylum seekers, Kipp explained. But transit countries are not interested in taking back people deported from third countries, Deutsche Welle reports.
European Parliament elections are due in June, and migration often plays an important political role in polls in many EU member states – most recently in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-immigration Freedom Party won.
However, experts such as Kipp are highly sceptical about the new asylum rules because the reality is that migration will continue.
