The superyacht Bayesian, owned by the late technology magnate Mike Lynch, sank off the Italian coast after being hit by winds of around 117 km/h, which caused the vessel to lose stability and flood on the starboard side, according to a preliminary report by the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB).
Investigators said the Bayesian may have been vulnerable to strong winds while operating under engine power and that these “vulnerabilities” were “unknown to the owner and crew” as they were not included in the stability information book on board.
The luxury vessel with a 75-metre mast was anchored off the coast near the port of Porticello in the province of Palermo on August 19, 2024 when, shortly before dawn, it was hit by a severe storm, killing seven people, including Mike Lynch himself and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah. Fifteen people, including Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares, were rescued.
MAIB investigators, who analysed the yacht’s stability, the likely local weather conditions at the time and their impact on the yacht, commissioned a Bayesian stability study by the Wolfson Department of Marine Technology and Industrial Aerodynamics at the University of Southampton.
The researchers constructed a model of the yacht’s stability, “which reproduced the information contained in the approved stability information booklet,” the report said, and was subsequently adjusted to reproduce the conditions on the night the vessel sank, while under motorised power and with the centreboard raised.
Strong winds caused boat to sink, MAIB report says
The report states that a rapidly passing mesocyclonic squall caused short-lived hurricane-force gusts that turned the Bayesian 90 degrees in less than 15 seconds, causing it to capsize. “Once the yacht had heeled more than 70 degrees, the situation became irreversible,” the report said.
Investigators said there were “no signs of flooding inside the Bayesian until water poured over the starboard railings and, within seconds, entered the interior through the stairwells.”
The MAIB said its report was based on “a limited amount of verified evidence” as the Italian authorities’ criminal investigation had restricted access to the wreck site and other physical evidence. Further details, such as “evacuation routes,” will be included in the final report once the MAIB gains access to the vessel. The full investigation report will be published no earlier than 12 months from now.
The sunken vessel is currently lying at a depth of 50 metres in the Gulf of Porticello. Recovery work to raise the Bayesian, which began in early May, was suspended after a Dutch diver died during underwater operations. Preparatory work at the site to resume recovery operations is scheduled to begin on Thursday.
