As autumn turned, it became more obvious that the Ukrainian offensive that many hoped would bring Russia to its senses had failed – The Economist.
The festive season has arrived, approaching the end of 2023, which is unlikely to end on a positive note. Apart from this, that Orbán is at his most irritated as he may soon have a new ally, Geert Wilders, who came first in the 22 November Dutch election.
On top of that, Germany’s budget problems threaten to deal a blow to the EU’s already overstretched finances. The summit on 14 and 15 December to help Ukraine with money and the prospect of joining the European Union, now the lines of questioning are blurring.
In October, the European Union became desperate and irrelevant when war erupted in the Middle East, causing many previously unspoken problems to erupt.
The United States, led by Joe Biden, did most of the military assistance, especially in the early stages, while the European Union provided more of a humanitarian response.
Apart from taking in millions of refugees from 2022, Europe’s main contribution has been to secure Ukraine’s future, with some $55 billion pledged in June to help the Kyiv government remain solvent until the end of 2027. Most importantly, Ukraine might one day become a full member of the European Union – a certain way to achieve prosperity after the war. That is, in addition to signing the agreement to allocate the money, Ukraine had to move on to the next stage of EU membership – the start of formal negotiations.
On the other hand, Europe has not appeared completely united on the Ukraine issue: Mr Orbán has been telegraphing for months that he is against sending more money to Ukraine. One of the factors is his continued willingness to see things from the Kremlin’s point of view.
To be fair, this is not just about Mr Orbán alone, who hopes to sway everyone to his side by convincing them that he is better listened to. Another issue arose in Germany when its constitutional court ruled on 15 November that the various off-balance-sheet funds that the government used to circumvent the self-imposed “debt brake” were unconstitutional. A hasty reorganization of domestic finances is imminent. This, in turn, jeopardizes the planned overall increase in the EU budget, part of which was to finance Ukraine.
There is no consensus on the separate €50 billion requested by the European Commission to pay for other spending,
Scrutinizing governments such as the Dutch or Swedish have opposed the extra money; Germany was also sceptical and now says its hands are tied. Separating the €50 billion allocated to Ukraine from the other €50 billion could be politically challenging, making it even more difficult to conclude a deal on the whole package before the end of the year.
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the European Union will work together to find funds for Kyiv, but the money may arrive significantly late. Such a delay could be detrimental, especially if the start of EU accession negotiations is also delayed. Ukraine, with all the “buts,” has met all the requirements to move to the next stage of its EU journey.
Close quarrels over money and enlargement mean a loss of momentum. The unity that enabled Europe to endure in the early days of the conflict is no longer as secure as it once was. Given that further US support is itself uncertain, this is not a good time for Europe to lose its nerve.
