Tokyo is urgently seeking to adapt to the age of drone warfare and artificial intelligence, citing stark lessons from the battlefields of Ukraine and the Middle East, as it races to bolster its defence industry against what it deems its greatest strategic challenge: China.
The drone imperative and a shrinking population
Japan must adapt swiftly to new methods of warfare, including the use of drones and artificial intelligence seen in Ukraine and the Middle East, whilst shoring up its domestic defence industry, the government announced on Tuesday. In recent years, Japan has significantly enhanced its military capabilities and ramped up spending, beginning the deployment of long-range cruise missiles as a deterrent against Chinese military activity.
A 598-page defence white paper, adopted by the cabinet on Tuesday, reaffirms that China represents Japan’s most significant strategic challenge. A growing source of anxiety for Tokyo is the expanding presence and frequency of Chinese warships operating in the Pacific Ocean. The annual report outlines Japan’s military activities and priorities, alongside an analysis of military trends in specific countries.
With Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government requiring public backing for a continued military build-up and increased spending, as well as for recruitment, the document incorporates elements designed to engage readers, including a cartoon on the cover and links to video clips in Japanese, English and Chinese.
Drawing inspiration from Ukraine’s battlefields
Drawing inspiration from Ukraine’s drone warfare, the document states that Japan sees an urgent need to adapt to “new ways of war.” With many nations racing to develop combat drones, the Japanese government is prioritising the creation of its own unmanned systems for coastal defence, intended to be paired with long-range missiles.
The nation’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency recently shortlisted four drone manufacturers from 38 applicants for a rapid development programme; they are set to begin trials with Japan’s naval forces in early August before a final selection. A number of companies are developing similar systems. Toshiba announced on Friday its plans to co-develop combat drones with start-up Pro Drone.
Unmanned weaponry could help Japan offset the dwindling number of service personnel in a country with a declining population. However, experts note that developing entirely domestic drones, at a time when China’s imports dominate the commercial market in Japan, will prove a formidable task.
Pacific strategy and the Taiwan contingency
Japan has in recent years fortified its military forces on its southwestern islands and commenced the deployment of long-range cruise missiles, fearing a conflict over Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. The white paper flags the growing presence of Chinese military vessels and the frequency of their activity in the Pacific as a serious concern. The Ministry of Defence has established a unit dedicated to studying Japan’s Pacific strategy and strengthening defences against China.
China is consistently increasing its military spending without transparency and is significantly and rapidly building up its nuclear and missile capabilities, the defence document says. Last December, Chinese aircraft directed their fire-control radars, considered a possible preparation for missile launch, at Japanese planes during exercises conducted by Chinese aircraft carriers near southwestern Japan.
Two Chinese carriers were spotted near the southern Japanese island of Iwo Jima for the first time last June, raising alarm in Tokyo over Beijing’s rapidly expanding military activities far from its shores and in disputed areas of the East China Sea. Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have heightened since Takaichi stated in November that Chinese military action against Taiwan could justify the use of force by Japan.
Reviving the defence industry through exports and start-ups
Strengthening arms production and technology is essential for Japan’s military might, the paper argues, with the government expanding funding for start-ups and scientific research. In a country that has clung to pacifist pledges since the World War II, many major corporations eschew connections with lethal weaponry. However, officials observe a growing number of start-ups showing interest in transferring dual-use technology for military purposes.
Japan’s recent lifting of its ban on lethal weapons exports could also help fortify the nation’s underdeveloped defence industry. The transfer of weapons technology, joint development, and production bolsters both the base of Japan’s defence industry and its ties with its defence partners, a government spokesperson noted, pointing to overseas trips that included arms sales.
Japan has recently clinched major deals, including the joint development and transfer of 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates to Australia. It is in discussions over a similar deal with New Zealand and has finalised an agreement to sell decommissioned destroyers to the Philippines.
