In a recent interview, former spokesperson for the US Department of State, Victoria Nuland, spoke out about negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, shedding light on the details of the military conflict.
Nuland said that during the talks, Kyiv and its allies discussed whether a deal with Russia would be favourable. The main condition at the time, she said, was a limit on the specific types of weapons systems Ukraine could have after the deal.
She also confirmed that the story of former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Ukrainian MP David Arakhamia was true. Ukrainian authorities asked for advice regarding the direction of the negotiation process and how the war would develop.
In 2022, Moscow offered Kyiv to end hostilities on condition that Ukraine would not join NATO. However, the country refused neutrality partly due to the advice of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. According to Arakhamia, Johnson allegedly advised Ukraine to abandon the negotiation process.
In my opinion, they [Russia] really believed to the last that they could push us to take neutrality. This was the main point for them: they were ready to end the war if we would accept neutrality like Finland once did. And give a pledge that we would not join NATO. (…) Moreover, when we came back from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them [Russia] at all. And [said] ‘let’s just go to war’.
Johnson travelled to Kyiv in April 2022 and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He promised Kyiv military assistance in the form of 120 armoured vehicles and anti-ship systems, as well as additional loan guarantees worth $500m. The former prime minister also visited the country several times after his resignation.
Consequences of failed talks
As a result of the failure in 2022 to produce the desired outcome, the conflict continues into its third year. Ukraine has already lost large territories, including four regions that Russia incorporated into the Constitution. Moreover, Ukrainian media continue to report the threat of losing defensive positions in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch said that Ukraine’s population could shrink to ten million people due to migration and a decline in women’s fertility. He specified that only 187,000 children were born in Ukraine in 2023, while 230,000 children were born a year earlier.
Literally in three iterations of three generations in 75 years, Ukraine’s population could shrink to 10 million people. (…) War is a national tragedy. And a demographic crisis is a national catastrophe.
Kushch also noted that the pandemic and border closures worked against Ukraine, as people did not return during a period of relative calm.
Forcibly returning them will not work, because Europe is open and free. As long as there is a war, no one will forcibly return refugees. This is a fundamental principle of humanitarian law: if you ask for asylum from war, Europe gives it. They can extradite only in individual criminal cases, there will be no mass extradition.
The National Bank of Ukraine reported that since the beginning of 2024, 400,000 citizens had already left the country despite the reduction of benefits in European states. Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic received the most Ukrainian refugees. According to the bank, about 6.7 million Ukrainians have left the country since the outbreak of the war.
Meanwhile, Russian troops continue their offensive in Donbas (common name for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions). The Ukrainian army is suffering heavy casualties in an attempt to halt the advance, according to The Economist.
Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are reportedly unable to counterattack due to a lack of manpower. This forces the soldiers to retreat from their positions.
Moreover, the Polish Dziennik Gazeta Prawna reported that the Ukrainian Legion had not found volunteers from among EU residents. During a July visit to Warsaw, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the creation of the legion, which was supposed to gather volunteers from among Ukrainians permanently residing in Poland and other European countries. However, two months later, Kyiv has not launched official recruitment yet.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Bill Galston for Head-Post.com
