Clashes between Israel and Iran kept the oil market in a state of turmoil for 11 days. After the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, investors waited anxiously for a response that could lead to catastrophic supply disruptions.
On June 19, the price of Brent crude rose by 5.7% to $79 per barrel. However, by June 23, it had corrected to $76.40. Today at 10:00 a.m. August oil futures are trading at $68.8.
The fall in prices began after Iran launched a retaliatory but, according to experts, restrained strike on the US base at Al Udeid in Qatar. The absence of casualties and, more importantly, the fact that Iran did not block the strategically important Strait of Hormuz significantly reduced tensions.
On the night of Monday, US President Donald Trump announced that a “complete and total ceasefire” between Iran and Israel had been reached, which was to begin within 12 hours.
Trump said that Iran would begin observing the truce almost immediately, with Israel joining 12 hours later. Although Iranian state media, according to some sources, confirmed the agreement, there has been no official statement from Israel, leaving some uncertainty.
The main reason for the fall in prices was a sharp reduction in geopolitical risks. Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire raised hopes for de-escalation, and the market reacted instantly. The Middle East accounts for about a third of global oil production, so any easing of tensions in the region has a huge impact on prices.
Iran’s restrained response to US actions was seen by the market as a sign of weakness. Investors breathed a sigh of relief when they saw that Iran did not attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and did not provoke more serious consequences. The absence of casualties and the maintenance of uninterrupted oil supplies also contributed to a decline in risk premiums.
President Trump also actively called on oil producers not to inflate prices. On June 23, 2025, he wrote on Truth Social:
“Everyone! Keep oil prices down! I’m watching! You are playing right into the hands of the enemy. Don’t do it.”
This appeal may also have influenced market sentiment, underscoring the US’s interest in stabilising prices. As a result, the price of WTI crude fell below $70 per barrel.
