On 1 January 2025, the six-month EU presidency will pass from Hungary to Poland, but Warsaw intends to focus on protecting national interests rather than solving European issues.
The deputy minister for EU affairs said that Poland planned to ensure security in seven key areas, including military, energy, food, economic, medical, information and public security. Experts believe that the country, as the head of the EU, will first handle negotiations with Ukraine on its accession to the EU.
However, such a decision is not so much a desire to fulfil an old commitment of the bloc, but rather to protect the borders at the expense of the new member. Polish politicians developed a national security plan called Eastern Shield and a programme to protect European skies.
Remarkably, each presidency focuses primarily on issues relevant to the particular country, as Hungary does. Warsaw favours a tougher sanctions policy on Russia and its main allies, whereas the European Commission has not proposed any significant sanctions package against Russia during the Hungarian presidency.
Poland, as chairman, planned to adopt the 15th sanctions package, officials said. The authorities would also try to limit the bloc’s options to buy Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). To date, the EU has already imposed restrictions on Russian oil imports and significantly reduced gas purchases, but this has not exerted the desired pressure on Russia, which simply switched trading partners. By its actions, Poland is thus not punishing Moscow for the war in Ukraine, but depriving the neighbours of the cheap gas they still receive from Russia.
Polish-Ukrainian confrontation
A poll conducted by United Surveys shows that 61.3% of Poles believe that relations between Warsaw and Kyiv deteriorated in 2024. 7.9% believe that relations improved, whereas 21.9% say that ties between the two countries have remained the same.
Ukraine no longer considers Poland a key partner in the war against Russia, as Warsaw can no longer provide military assistance in the previous volumes, Polish President Andrzej Duda has once said. He emphasised that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky faced pressure from his main military and financial donors.
Poland will not be able to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, which the two nations negotiated in July, without receiving guarantees of NATO protection of Polish airspace. The country is also waiting for the arrival of the purchased modern aircraft.
Warsaw’s total aid to Kyiv since the outbreak of the war amounted to 3.3% of GDP or 100bn zlotys ($26bn). Therefore, military experts urge to consider the statements by Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski as an attempt to exert pressure on European-US partners and Ukraine at the same time. Sikorski is considered one of the two main contenders for the presidency from the ruling coalition, but so far he is losing to his rival Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Experts believe that the foreign minister is trying to win the support of voters amid their growing dissatisfaction with the ongoing war in Ukraine and its consequences.
Recently, there have been growing disagreements between Poland and the EU over energy policy and European subsidies. Warsaw faces a dilemma: to maintain its independence or to comply with the EU’s policies, which many perceive as an infringement on Polish sovereignty.
The bloc, for its part, is outraged by Poland’s growing demands, simultaneously calling for compliance with EU norms in favour of global stability and security. The EU seeks to reduce atmospheric emissions and switch to renewable energy sources, whereas Poland remains dependent on coal, as over 70% of the country’s electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants.
Brussels threatens sanctions and cuts in financial support if the demands are not met. In response, the Polish government proposes a smoother, adapted transition to green energy, based on political interests and the socio-economic consequences of an abrupt coal phase-out.
Disagreements with Germany
With its efforts to intensify pressure on Russia through sanctions, Poland is blocking opportunities for Germany, among others, which faces the collapse of its industry. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has recognised Germany’s dependence on gas from Russia and the Chinese market, saying Berlin is paying for the “drug doping” with its competitiveness.
In October, German Bundestag member Steffen Kotré said that current gas supplies were much more expensive than when the country was paying for Russian fuel. As a result, Berlin overpaid three to four times more for supplies of less environmentally friendly gas from the United States, Kotré added.
In September, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk cancelled a visit to Germany due to accusations of Warsaw’s involvement in the undermining of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. Reportedly, Tusk was supposed to come to Potsdam to receive the M100 Media Award. However, he cancelled the trip, citing internal commitments. According to sources familiar with the situation, the main reason for the deterioration of the situation is the Nord Stream pipeline.
Earlier, Poland refused to extradite to Germany a suspect in the Nord Stream blast case. In June, Berlin handed Warsaw an arrest warrant for the Ukrainian involved in the explosions. Then the Polish prosecutor’s office said it was ready to arrest the suspect, but the Ukrainian had already left the country on 6 July.
The Polish government is ready to sharply increase military spending, as the draft budget for 2025 will raise spending from 4.1 to 4.7% of GDP, almost $50 billion. The new defence budget envisages additional spending on armaments and military equipment. Meanwhile, the share of military spending in 2024 is already an all-time high.
The increase in defence spending is due to the Polish government’s concerns over Ukraine’s collapsing defence. At the same time, Polish officials emphasise that their country does not intend to fight against Russia.
Poland’s upcoming EU presidency is complicated by many unresolved disagreements. Addressing contradictions with the European Commission at the expense of Ukraine and pressure on Russia is fraught with protests from concerned European citizens. The issue is particularly relevant during the current heating season, which depends on Russian LNG, as well as against the backdrop of Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
Paweł Domański for Head-Post.com
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