Economists at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) said that Poland’s growth rate will exceed 2% in the coming quarters, largely fuelled by an increase in consumer spending by the population.
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on Thursday, Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.0 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, slightly better than the 0.5 per cent growth seen in the third quarter of 2023. The figure is in line with an earlier “flash estimate” provided by GUS.
PIE analysts stressed that this result was influenced by weak household consumption and strong corporate investment spending, which grew by 8.7 per cent year-on-year. In addition, net exports made a positive contribution, while lower inventories had a negative impact. Analysts noted that “the significant decline in inventory levels is likely due to data compilation issues and is often subject to revisions in subsequent publications.”
Growth is expected to be around 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, helped by a recovery in consumer spending and the low base of the previous year.
