The inauguration of Poland’s president-elect Karol Nawrocki took place on Wednesday. In the presidential elections held in June, with the support of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki defeated the ruling party’s candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.
The balance of political forces in Poland remains unchanged: former President Andrzej Duda also belonged to PiS, while executive power remains in the hands of the pro-European liberal coalition government led by Donald Tusk.
Nevertheless, relations between Nawrocki and Tusk began to take on a confrontational and unpredictable character even before the inauguration. Nawrocki publicly called Tusk “the worst prime minister since 1989” and, after taking office, stated that he did not plan to meet with him unless absolutely necessary.
In response to the president’s harsh rhetoric, Tusk himself noted that he would be forced to co-operate with him because the “rules of the game” required it, but warned of “difficult co-operation” and prepared an emergency plan for his team.
Nawrocki has the full range of presidential powers, including the right to veto legislative initiatives, refer laws to the Constitutional Court for review, and set the foreign policy agenda on defence and national security issues. According to foreign analysts, in order to carry out any serious reform, the prime minister will have to either negotiate with the opposition or seek legal loopholes.
The president’s veto on such fundamental government issues as abortion rights and measures to combat the budget deficit can only be overcome by a two-thirds majority in the Seimas, which the ruling coalition does not have. Nawrocki also appears intent on becoming a problem for the government by proposing populist and difficult-to-implement measures, such as tax cuts.
If the conflict between the branches of government escalates, early elections or a change of prime minister within the coalition cannot be ruled out. Tusk himself has already commented on the possibility of his resignation, not ruling out a change of leadership in the cabinet for the sake of political stability.
