The centrist mayor of Warsaw is leading by a narrow margin in the first round of Poland’s presidential election. Rafal Trzaskowski and historian Karol Nawrocki, who are supported by nationally oriented populists, have reached the second round of the election.
First voting results
The vote sets the stage for a run-off election in a fortnight, which will force voters to choose between very different visions of the country’s future.
The results of an exit poll conducted by the Ipsos institute, released at the end of voting on Sunday, showed that Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, won 30.8 per cent of the vote in the first round. He was followed by Karol Nawrocki, who was backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party with 29.1 per cent of the vote.
Trzaskowski had long been considered the favourite to win the election, but his lead over Nawrocki has narrowed in recent weeks. However, exit poll results indicate that the leaders’ results were closer than expected in the first round, and this is likely to make Trzaskowski and Tusk nervous.
Not a step back
Shortly after the exit poll results were published, Tusk reacted on social media. Everything is at stake now, he wrote, adding that “the next two weeks will decide the future” of Poland. “Not a step back!” he said.
That view was echoed by former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. “The stakes are enormous,” Kwasniewski, whose presidential term lasted from 1995 to 2005 and included Poland’s accession to NATO and the EU, told TVP Info. “We are fighting for Poland to be on the side of European democracies, otherwise it will end up on the side of European troublemakers, those who want to go the way of Viktor Orban or Robert Fico.”
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda is a close ally of the previous PiS government and a supporter of Donald Trump. He has opposed the new administration’s changes and blocked some decisions, including the appointment of ambassadors.
Political instability
An opposition victory would prolong the current deadlock, leading to years of political instability.
Official results of the first round, in which 13 candidates vied for the presidency, are expected on Monday or Tuesday.
The two candidates will meet in a run-off on June 1, when voters will be asked to choose between Trzaskowski’s promises to reform the judiciary and restore democratic institutions and Nawrocki’s admiration for Donald Trump, strong anti-migration rhetoric and promises to crack down on “woke” liberal values.
Supporters of Sławomir Mentzen, a libertarian nationally oriented candidate who finished third on Sunday with 15.4 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls, could be key in the run-off. A Eurosceptic and staunch opponent of abortion and migrants, Mentzen has targeted the country’s 1 million Ukrainian refugees, accusing them of taking advantage of Poland.
The large number of votes cast in Mentzen’s favour suggests he took advantage of the discontent of voters seeking to get rid of the country’s two-party system of government.
Speaking after the results were announced, Trzaskowski warned voters that Nawrocki was a “radical” politician and could cause further upheaval in the country’s highly polarised political life.
Unexpected points
Meanwhile, Nawrocki appealed directly to third-placed Mentzen, calling on him and his voters to help him “save Poland” and “stop Donald Tusk’s march towards monocracy.”
In another unexpected development, exit polls showed that 6.2 per cent of voters backed Grzegorz Braun, putting the lawmaker from the nationally oriented Confederation Party in fourth place. Braun is under investigation after he used a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in the Polish parliament to protest the celebration of Jewish holidays, and the European Parliament voted a fortnight ago to lift his immunity as a European lawmaker.
Trzaskowski has struggled to make gains in the countryside, even as support for Nawrocki has plummeted due to questions about the circumstances under which he bought a flat from an elderly man and suggestions that he failed to fulfil his caretaking obligations as part of the deal. He has denied those allegations.
If the exit poll results are confirmed, political analyst Ben Stanley said the nationally oriented party candidates performed better than expected in the first round, while centrist and left-wing candidates performed worse.
Hopes for 2nd round of voting
However, it remains to be seen what this could mean for the second round. “With so many candidates and a margin of error of 2 percentage points, the picture could change in any direction,” the political analyst said.
In the first round, about 15% of the vote went to centre-right Szymon Hołownia, along with Magdalena Biejat of the New Left and ultra-leftist Adrian Zandberg, meaning Trzaskowski is likely to spend the next couple of weeks trying to plan how to get these very different groups of voters on his side in the second round.
The vote for Poland’s next president – a position that determines foreign policy and can be used to pass and veto laws – has become a crucial moment for the country’s pro-European coalition government.
The Tusk-led coalition is an unwieldy mix of parties that span the political spectrum. Since coming to power in late 2023, after eight years in which PiS has been accused of undermining democratic checks and balances and becoming increasingly authoritarian, the coalition’s ability to deliver on promises such as reforming the justice system, liberalising abortion laws and introducing same-sex civil partnerships has been partially blocked by Duda.
Stakes are high
The presidential election is deadlocked, turning the vote into a question of whether voters want to continue the political realignment that began in 2023 when PiS was ousted from power by the country’s parliament. Jacek Kucharczyk, president of a Warsaw-based think tank, said:
“The stakes are huge for the ruling coalition and for those who care about the future of Polish democracy. We are talking about democratic reforms and the restoration of the rule of law, and this can only happen with the co-operation of the next president.”
That view was echoed by Tusk, who said last month that the stakes remain as high as the 2023 election. “It is difficult to run the country alongside a hostile president, given all these vetoes,” he told parliament.
