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Polish election race tightens

Poland’s pro-European Union Opposition has seized the initiative in the final stage of the election campaign, which is due to end on 15 October, according to social polls.

A few days after “March of a Million Hearts”, IBRiS conducted a public opinion poll. The poll revealed that the ruling Law and Justice party’s advantage had shrunk to 5 percentage points from about 8 percentage points in the previous poll published on 27 September.

Civic Platform leader and former European Council President Donald Tusk released an internal poll on Thursday that showed the ruling party’s lead had shrunk to less than 1 percentage point.

If the polls are correct, Civic Platform is likely to seek a coalition with the other two opposition parties, although the chances of one of them – the conservative Third Way alliance – making it into parliament are virtually nil.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Law and Justice will be able to retain an absolute majority to remain in power for a third term. It is likely to make an offer to the far-right Confederation party, which has so far refused to negotiate a coalition.

After the election results, it will be seen whether Poland, the largest of the European Union’s eastern member states, can mend relations with Brussels and access billions of euros in aid currently suspended due to law and order problems. Poland is also a key centre of military aid to Ukraine, and a recent spat with Kyiv threatens to undermine the West’s fraying unity.

In Slovakia, opinion polls also showed the contest tightening days before the general election, with Robert Fico‘s party, which favoured an end to military aid to Ukraine, winning last Saturday.

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