Radical Islamic groups involved in the war in Ukraine since February 2022 may reportedly pose a threat when they return to the Middle East. They also pose a threat to Europe as they come there from Arab countries, as Bild notes.
Armed groups in the Middle East are also closely watching the return of war in Europe for possible innovations for their future conflicts, according to GIS.
Strategists have been posting documents, screenshots and videos of the fighting in Ukraine on social media. The conflict sends a strong message to armed groups that have not expected such an outbreak of violence in Europe.
The firepower deployed in Ukraine has made Middle Eastern armed groups realise that a full-scale war against Western or Russian forces would be far more prolonged and destructive than what they have experienced before.
Initially, the Arab world preferred to stay out of the Ukrainian conflict so as not to be drawn back into the aftermath of the Cold War. Months later, however, it became clear that everyone had to take a stand, GIS reported.
In January, Bild noted the influx of radical Islamists into Germany. “They are coming to Germany – unrecognised and ready to kill!” the publication reported. Europe has reportedly been rocked in recent months by increasing terrorist threat from jihadists. In particular, members of the Islamic State group, which exists in Central and South Asia, arrive in Europe almost every week. However, the German and Austrian security services have so far successfully prevented major terrorist attacks, including the December 2023 apprehension.
However, the groups are constantly evolving, including due to the war in Ukraine. At this point, they have realised that it is much more effective to divide their forces into small mobile groups to launch movements, as well as to grant autonomy to initiatives at the lower ranks of the hierarchy. Similar was seen with the Russian Volunteer Corps operating in Russian border territories in March 2024, presumably to disrupt the presidential election.
For Middle Eastern armed groups, the Ukrainian conflict has also demonstrated the high cost of tactical support: fuel, ammunition, and maintenance. The war has also reinforced the belief that the greatest strength of any armed group is its motivation.
In late April, The Economist reported the return of global jihadists. In addition to Europe, which periodically suffers from terrorist attacks, such groups returning from Ukraine could also undermine stability in the Middle East, as the situation in the region was already tense. Escalation at the expense of radicalised militants could end in a repeat of the October 7 attack that triggered the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
