From a purely mathematical point of view, a new grand coalition could be formed after the election, a recent poll showed. It also found that many German voters are still undecided.
About a month before the general election, a YouGov poll shows that the CDU/CSU’s lead is shrinking slightly, with the SPD catching up and coming in second place with the AfD. According to the representative poll of 1,858 eligible voters, the CDU and the CSU lost two percentage points from the previous week to 28 per cent. The AfD has also lost two points and is at 19 per cent. The SPD gained one point and is now also at 19 per cent.
The Greens gained one point and are now at 15 per cent, the highest YouGov figure since April 2024. There was no change among the smaller parties in Sunday’s poll, with the BSV advancing to the Bundestag with 6 per cent and the FDP and Linke dropping out with 4 per cent each.
This would be enough for a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, but not between the CDU/CSU and the Greens. Other options, possible purely mathematically, are almost politically impossible.
YouGov poll results at a glance:
- CDU/CSU: 28 per cent (-2)
- SPD: 19 per cent (+1)
- AfD: 19 per cent (-2)
- Greens: 15 per cent (+1)
- FDP: 4 per cent (+-0)
- BSV: 6 per cent (+-0)
- Linke: 4 per cent (+-0)
However, pre-election polls tend to be subject to uncertainty, for example due to declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions. In addition, the findings reflect only opinion at the time of the poll and are not predictive of the election outcome. In recent polls by other institutions, the CDU/CSU had between 29 and 31 per cent, the SPD 16 per cent and the AfD between 19 and 21.5 per cent.
Just under a third of people eligible to vote have not yet made a final decision. Accordingly, 30 per cent of all eligible voters responded to YouGov questions.
According to the survey, these undecided voters obviously have several reasons. 79 per cent do not feel adequately represented by any party. 75 per cent would like to wait and see how things develop. 70 per cent do not feel adequately informed. Only 40 per cent say the parties’ positions are too similar to make a decision, while 45 per cent feel they are not. The YouGov Sunday poll from 17 to 20 January involved 1,858 out of 2,194 respondents.
