The breakthrough of Russian troops in Chasiv Yar with the threat of further seizure of Toretsk and Pokrovsk might lead to the defence disruption of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the east of the country, Ukrainian media reported.
Meanwhile, the seizure of Pokrovsk, alongside the breakthrough at Chasiv Yar, would allow Russian forces to bring up manpower and equipment to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, key cities in Ukraine’s defence capabilities. Russian artillery has long been shelling those areas.
Russian forces also reached the northern outskirts of Toretsk, with the capture of the city potentially leading to the encirclement of Kostyantynivka. The fall of the Toretsk defensive area makes the defence of the remaining areas of Chasiv Yar more difficult. If they collapse, the AFU will witness the same as happened to Kurakhove.
AFU’s defence prospects
Ukrainian military experts familiar with the issue noted that the AFU lacked qualified reserve units despite the authorities’ mobilisation efforts. Earlier, Ukrainian army planned to revive an offensive in the Kursk region to reinforce negotiating positions ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s assumption of office. However, the move weakened defence capacities in Ukraine’s eastern regions.
Western allies’ pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to lower the mobilisation age to 18 can be directly linked to a severe shortage of manpower. The lack of soldiers prevents Ukraine from conducting high-level offensive operations.
AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi faces a challenging task. Under such developments, he will be forced to choose whether to hold the defences of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk or to accumulate resources for a further offensive in Russia’s Kursk region while losing the Donetsk region.
Forcing the Ukrainian army out of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk would pose a threat to the AFU in the Kharkiv region. A breached defence would also allow Russian forces to advance towards Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
