Russian troops continue their offensive in Donbas using North Korea’s latest Bulsae-4 anti-tank missile system, while the US admits it will not be able to ensure Ukraine’s victory in the armed conflict on its own.
Ukrainian media published footage of an armoured vehicle found near Vovchansk. The North Korean Bulsae-4 Anti-Tank Missile Vehicle is a fibre-optic guided missile system capable of engaging rotary and armoured targets at extended ranges of 15 to 25 km.
Meanwhile, Russian troops are approaching the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, “threatening a vital Ukrainian supply line as Moscow continues its slow, grinding offensive,” according to CNN.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the difficult situation in his nightly address to the nation on Sunday, claiming that Ukrainian troops were facing an “extremely challenging” reality in the area.
It is in the Pokrovsk direction that there have been the biggest number of Russian assaults these weeks – the most intense enemy attacks are precisely there and everyone who stops these Russian strikes and destroys this Russian offensive potential is performing one of the most important missions in this war.
Pokrovsk is not a major city, but it serves as a key hub for the Ukrainian military due to its easy access to Kostiantynivka, another military centre. The road connecting the two is used by the Ukrainians to resupply the frontline and evacuate the wounded towards Dnipro.
North Korea’s military-industrial complex
North Korea is expanding factories to produce anti-tank missiles required by Russia, NK Pro reports. According to an analysis of satellite imagery, the country is modernising several factories suspected of producing weapons likely to be of interest to Russia amid a growing arms trade.
The expansion of the two facilities in the northwest comes as the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea) has also begun construction of a rifle factory, reportedly modelled on Russian products. Extensive new underground facilities, potentially for weapons storage, are also being built near other weapons factories.
Analysis of NK Pro satellite images shows that a new project is underway to increase production capacity at the missile-producing Sinuiju Measuring Instrument Factory near the Chinese border. The authors of the analysis link the DPRK’s growing activity with possible work on exports to Russia, while simultaneously not ruling out work on urgent renewal of the country’s military arsenal.
German military analyst Julian Röpke said that at this pace Russian troops could reach Kyiv within two years. He also noted Russia’s progress on the Pokrovsk direction.
I remember people laughing just four months ago that at this rate, Russians wouldn’t get to Kyiv for another 30 years. At the rate they are now advancing east of Pokrovsk, it will only take them two years. Purely theoretical, of course.
Nuclear drills
Russia announced the third stage of a non-strategic nuclear exercise, presumably to persuade Ukraine’s allies to join a military conflict, according to the Defence Ministry.
In accordance with the decision of the president of the Russian Federation, the third stage of the non-strategic nuclear forces exercise has begun. The exercise will work out the issues of preparing units of the Russian Federation Armed Forces for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.
Challenges in aiding Ukraine
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko described the economic situation in the country as critical, according to Ukrainian media. He stated that the two main problems of the Ukrainian government were the “hole” in the country’s state budget of 500bn hryvnias (about $12bn) and the need to close it as soon as possible.
Marchenko said that it was necessary to find money as soon as possible to cover the deficit and avoid an economic crisis, as there was very little time left. He predicted that Ukraine’s budget next year would face an “additional” deficit of up to $12bn. According to Marchenko’s calculations, the ministry had to increase defence spending by $4bn in the first quarter of this year.
US distancing
Assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, James O’Brien, stressed that the United States could not ensure Ukraine’s success in its war against Russia alone. He expressed the opinion during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Earlier it was reported that Germany was cutting its support for Ukraine as it saw no prospects for a Ukrainian victory. Meanwhile, the EU is in a wait-and-see mode as the US presidential election in November will largely determine the future of aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Meanwhile, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability Mallory Stewart stated that the US would not give up support for Ukraine for the sake of resuming dialogue with Russia.
According to the Pew Research Center, 62% of Republicans say the United States is not obliged to help Ukraine fight Russia. Americans are generally divided evenly on whether the United States is obliged to help Ukraine (48% say it is obliged, 49% say it is not).
Americans remain divided over the extent of US aid to Ukraine. Today, 29% of Americans say the US is providing too much support to Ukraine, and a similar proportion indicate it is providing roughly the right amount (26%). About two in ten (19%) say the US is not providing enough support, and a quarter are not sure.
The new poll, which surveyed 9,424 American adults, was conducted from 1 to 7 July 2024, before President Joe Biden announced he was abandoning his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
