Moscow has learnt over the past year to develop new weapons and ammunition faster than at any time in its modern history, including during the Cold War, IntelliNews reports.
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes that Russia has been able to speed up weapons production thanks to huge supplies of machine tools, microelectronics and optics, mainly from China. Blinken said that Chinese assistance to Russia is helping to rebuild Russia’s defence and industrial base.
Blinken recently visited China where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and asked him to refrain from supporting Russian military production. Beijing was cautious not to hand over any military supplies, but did provide a large amount of other dual-use equipment and components that have greatly increased Russian militarised industrial production.
“Russia still has access to missile and drone components. Military aid to Ukraine is limited, but Russia still has access to critical components needed to produce missiles and drones,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an evening address on 14 April.
Chinese supplies and the 5% of GDP that Russia spends on the defence sector are affecting Russia’s macroeconomic performance and giving the economy a military Keynesianism boost. Industrial production growth in February was 8.5 per cent year-on-year, while GDP growth was 7.7 per cent, according to Russia’s State Statistics Service.
This sharp acceleration (GDP growth was 4.6 per cent in January) is partly due to an extra working day of the leap year.
“Fundamentally, though, growth is being driven by military spending, which feeds the manufacturing sector and causes abnormal consumer activity,” Renaissance Capital said in a note.
Russia is already producing more weapons and military equipment than it needs for the Ukrainian military conflict and is filling its arms depots, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has said, German TV channel n-tv reported on 25 April.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that the Russian army will receive the first samples of the new-generation S-500 anti-aircraft missile system in two variants in 2024 amid the escalating Ukrainian military conflict. The S-500 will replace the modern S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, Russia’s best air defence technology.
“This year the troops will receive the first samples of the new generation S-500 anti-aircraft missile system in two versions: long-range anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-missile defence systems, S-400, S-300B4 anti-aircraft missile systems, Buk-M3, Tor-M2U, radar stations of the new generation,” Shoigu said. “In order to maintain the pace of the offensive in Ukraine … the quantity and quality of weapons supplies must increase.”
Blinken said he believes that Russia will use this weapon against European countries when it is “done with Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, Latvia will send Ukraine another package of military aid to improve its air defence and reconnaissance capabilities. In particular, the Ukrainian military will receive NBS air defence systems, tactical unmanned surveillance systems and other equipment.
The EU is still lagging behind the US in terms of military aid to Ukraine, a study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) showed, European Pravda reported. Between February 2022 and the end of February 2024, the EU and its member states gave a total of €42bn in military aid to Ukraine, while the US provided €43.1bn.
In recent months, Europe has almost caught up with the US and is now “on par in terms of military aid,” explained Christoph Trebesch, head of IfW’s Ukraine Support Tracker. However, Europe has not been able to fill the large gap left by the United States, especially in terms of ammunition.
The European defence sector has been very slow to build up production capacity. Ukraine received about €6 billion in additional aid from the EU in January and February 2024, while an aid package totalling more than $60 billion was blocked in Congress.
The US also faces challenges when it comes to providing Ukraine with additional materiel. Whether it is artillery shells or Patriot missiles, the US simply does not have the resources to produce and provide even half of what Ukraine says it needs to get on par with Russia in the war, according to a commentary by Republican Senator J.D. Vance, “The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up,” published recently in The New York Times (NYT).
“Ukraine’s manpower situation is even worse” than the situation with its munitions, according to Vance. Vance then argues that these disparities must inform any future US policy toward the conflict, “from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.”
“The Biden administration has no viable plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans confront this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess and broker for peace,” Vance concludes.
