Serbia remains one of the most controversial countries in Europe, maintaining deep sympathy for Russia, whereas society is split between pro-Western and nationalist sentiments.
The recent mass protests triggered by the Novi Sad incident have exposed long-standing issues: corruption, mistrust in government and competition for influence between external actors. Serbia remains the only country in Europe where support for Russia remains extremely high, despite European resentment against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
According to sociologists, only 12 per cent of Serbs view Russia critically, but without hostility. Monuments to Nicholas II and Russian emigrants can still be found in Belgrade. However, the Russian language is almost forgotten in Serbia, with young people speaking mostly English.
Experts argue that the authorities are trying to “balance” between friendship with Moscow, Beijing’s economic interests and pressure from Brussels. Moreover, of the nearly 9 million Serbs, about 6 million live in the country, with the rest residing mainly in Western Europe and America. While foreign Serbs exert influence on the country from outside, local Serbs try to avoid political issues for fear of new upheavals.
Novi Sad tragedy as protest trigger
The collapse of the station canopy in November 2024, where 15 people died, triggered mass protests. The demonstrations began with demands for an investigation, but quickly escalated into nationwide campaign.
On 15 March, the largest mass protest against President Aleksandar Vučić took place in Belgrade. It was attended by 107,000 people, although non-governmental organisations put the number of participants as high as 325,000.
In response to the protests, the government released 16,000 reconstruction documents, sacked the prime minister and the construction minister, released arrested activists, and promised to reshuffle half of the government.
However, students continue to block the streets, demanding Vučić’s resignation. Meanwhile, radical demonstrators are calling for the ruling party to be outlawed.
Vučić accused foreign intelligence services of attempting a “colour revolution,” as opposition movements received support from abroad and therefore could not reflect the actual manifestation of Serbian will.
External players: China, EU, US
Serbia as a battlefield of geopolitical stakes attracts the interest of major players such as China, the US and the EU.
The reconstruction of the railway station was carried out by Chinese companies and more than a hundred subcontractors. Moreover, since Beijing’s involvement in the region, local media have been publishing reports of corrupt Chinese schemes. One such scheme was the suspicious lack of jobs for Serbs during the reconstruction of the railway station.
Serbia was also not accepted into the European Union, which Belgrade considered a strategic reference point for economic stability. Meanwhile, Brussels is demanding concessions on Kosovo, pressurising the country through NGOs and media outlets.
While some experts accuse the US of supporting anti-government groups and threatening sanctions against Serbia’s oil industry, Russia maintains its influence in the region through energy and historical ties. However, Moscow is also losing ground due to sanctions and Belgrade’s concessions to other political forces.
Among the possible scenarios, experts have identified three major ones. In the first, pro-Western forces would prevail and Serbia would accelerate its movement towards the EU, but at the cost of breaking ties with Russia.
In the second scenario, nationalist movements would intensify, forcing the country to adopt a “Great Serbian” policy, which might lead to its isolation. The third option would be the status quo: Vučić would hold on to power, but the protests would drag on for years.
For now, Serbia is not willing to choose between East and West. However, external forces are increasingly pushing Belgrade to make a choice. The main question is whether Serbia will be able to maintain its multi-vector policy or will become another victim of a geopolitical tussle.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Desislava Draganova for Head-Post.com
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