According to Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Russia will not carry out additional mobilisation of servicemen to take part in the fighting in Ukraine as more than 335,000 people have already signed contracts with the Armed Forces and voluntary units this year.
Russia is strengthening its armed forces and increasing weapons production in anticipation of a prolonged war in Ukraine, where the front line has remained virtually unchanged since last year. Shoigu was shown telling top generals on state television on Tuesday:
“There are no plans for an additional mobilisation. The armed forces have the necessary number of military personnel to conduct the special military operation.”
Shoigu, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, noted the patriotism of those who enlisted. He added:
“Since the start of the year, more than 335,000 people have entered military service under contract and in volunteer formations. In September, more than 50,000 citizens signed contracts.”
This evidence suggests that Russia has made significant progress in both signing up new recruits and bringing many fighters from the Wagner Group into “voluntary formations.”
Last year, Russia carried out a “partial mobilisation” of 300,000 reservists, causing hundreds of thousands of young people to leave Russia to avoid being sent to war. Later, the Russian President repeatedly stated that there was no need to repeat the mobilisation, which some Russian officials believe was a mistake because it forced many to leave.
The active fighting in Ukraine has killed and injured hundreds of thousands of people and caused the largest breakdown in Russia’s ties with the West in six decades. Western countries are actively supporting Ukraine militarily, while Russia is subject to economic sanctions.
However, the future course of the war remains uncertain. US officials predicted earlier this year that behind the series of minor defeats was a major setback for the Russian army. However, while last year Ukraine managed to wrest territory from Russia through attacks, this year the situation is different.
The Belfer Centre at Harvard Kennedy School reports that for September, Russia took 31 square miles and Ukraine 16 square miles. The stated goals of the war by both sides appear ambitious, with Ukraine saying it will expel every last Russian soldier from Ukraine and Russia saying it will demilitarise Ukraine.
Mark Milley, who stepped down as chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff last month, told CNN that the war will be long, difficult and bloody because Russia has more than 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine. He said:
“What I said months ago was it’s going to be long, hard, bloody because the nature of this particular fight and the type of defence that the Russians put in.”
Milley said Ukraine’s goal of kicking all Russians out of Ukraine “is going to take a long time. It’s going to take a very significant effort for a significant amount of time”. He claimed:
“I can tell you that it will take a considerable length of time to militarily eject all 200,000-plus Russian troops out of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That’s a very high bar. It’s going to take a long time to do it.”
While the Kremlin expects the US to continue supporting Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in security aid, Putin believes Western countries are tired of war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday:
“We have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States.”
