Senior officials in Ukraine’s military intelligence service say they are preparing a third attack on the 12-mile-long Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula to Russia, following two previous attempts to blow it up, saying its destruction is “inevitable”, The Guardian reports.
Crimean Bridge 2024
Destroying the bridge would bolster Ukraine’s campaign to “liberate” Crimea and boost morale on the battlefield, where Kyiv’s forces are gradually retreating.
How the Ukrainian attack will develop is unclear, and there are serious doubts that the HUR is capable of conducting a special operation against such a well-defended and obvious target. Russia has taken extensive measures to protect the bridge, strengthening air defences and deploying a “target barge” as a decoy for flying guided missiles. The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. One official told the Guardian:
We will do it in the first half of 2024.
He also added that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.
Ukrainian officials believe that Western weapons would allow Ukraine to destroy the bridge more quickly, and Zelensky has repeatedly asked Berlin to provide him with a long-range Taurus missile system. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far refused, saying it would be tantamount to his country taking a direct part in a war with Russia, and a dangerous escalation.
Earlier, Russian media released an intercepted phone conversation in which senior German military officials discussed Taurus capabilities. Experts estimate that 10-20 missiles would be enough to destroy the bridge.
Budanov’s deputy, Major General Vadym Skybytskyi, said he believed European politicians were wrong to fear escalation. He added:
What does escalation mean for us? We have two years of war. This is a daily procedure.
He said victory on the battlefield is currently impossible given Russia’s military superiority and the Ukrainian side’s shortage of artillery shells and fighter jets, and he believes Kyiv has “no choice” but to fight targets deep behind the front lines, including military infrastructure, command and control centres and industrial facilities producing “weapons and ammunition”.
Consequences of 2022 strike
What would be the Russian response if HUR decides to attack the bridge again?
On 8 October 2022, a bomb explosion on the Crimean Bridge ignited seven tank cars of a railway train carrying fuel towards the Crimean peninsula. As a result, two spans of the motorway bridge partially collapsed.
- On 9 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukrainian security services for the explosion, calling it an act of terrorism. Next day, Vladimir Putin said that the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge was a “red line” and ordered massive long-range strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
- On 10 October, explosions at critical infrastructure facilities were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv and other Ukrainian cities. The underground was stopped in Kyiv and Kharkiv, while transport stood still in Ivano-Frankivsk and Khmelnytsky. The Ukrainian State Emergency Service said that important infrastructure facilities were damaged in 12 regions and electricity supply was partially disrupted.
- On 11 October, the authorities of Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Khmelnytsky and other regions reported about explosions. Ladyzhynska thermal power plant in the Vinnitsa region was damaged, as well as two facilities in Lviv region, leaving some consumers without electricity, particularly in Lviv 30%. In Odessa, electricity was also lost. Part of the settlements in the north of Chernihiv region in Ukraine remained without light due to an emergency shutdown of one of the lines.
Local authorities massively urged citizens “not to use energy-intensive appliances, switch off unnecessary lighting and postpone laundry to night hours”. The country’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko told CNN on 12 October 2022:
About 30 per cent of the energy infrastructure in Ukraine has been hit by Russian missiles since Monday.
- On 31 October, Russian military forces again massively attacked Ukrainian military control and energy systems. The missile attack damaged the entire cascade of hydroelectric power plants on the Dnieper River: the Kyiv, the Kaniv, the Kremenchuk Stations and the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station – the largest module of electricity after the failure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Most likely, if Ukraine launches a new strike on the Crimean bridge, the Russian army will retaliate with new attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and the strikes could be even more powerful. Russian forces are already striking Ukrainian energy facilities.
President Zelensky said that Russia fired 400 missiles, more than 600 Shahed and 3,000 guided bombs at Ukraine in March. He appealed to the West to provide Ukraine with more air defence systems.
Tens of thousands of people are already fleeing Kharkiv because of the strikes, with footage appearing on social media showing convoys of cars leaving the city. If Russia increases the number of missile strikes, the air defences will not be able to cope. It is still unknown whether there will be an attack on the bridge, but it is clear that the Ukrainians themselves will be the first to be hit in such a scenario.
