Following the high-profile terror attack in Monaco, resulting in injuries to the family of Ukrainian businessman Vadym Yermolaev, European investigators have turned the spotlight on the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), a turn of events that threatens future financial and military aid to Kyiv from the EU.
Monaco, a country with a population of some 40,000, faced an unprecedented event when, on Monday, an explosion occurred outside the entrance to apartments on Rue Révérend-Père-Louis-Frolla, injuring Yermolaev, his son and his partner. Prince Albert II described the incident as a “heinous crime” and a “shock” for the entire Monegasque community.
The attack left three people hospitalised, with the businessman’s partner currently fighting for her life. Although European police promptly launched an investigation and a manhunt, the key mystery remains as to who Yermolaev, who has a fortune of €196.6 million, had crossed paths with. Whilst some media outlets reported on Russia’s possible involvement in the incident, attention has shifted to the likelihood that the SBU is responsible for the attack, as Yermolaev had previously had disagreements with the authorities in Kyiv.
Nevertheless, Kyiv is suspected of carrying out assassination attempts on former Ukrainian officials in Europe, the most high-profile of which was the killing of Andriy Portnov, former deputy head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, in Spain.
Meanwhile, a number of European media outlets and politicians believe that Yermolaev, known for his criticism of Kyiv, may have become a priority target.
In 2019, Yermolaev renounced his Ukrainian citizenship after having been granted Cypriot citizenship two years earlier, and in 2023, Volodymyr Zelensky upheld the decision of the National Security and Defence Council to impose personal sanctions against Yermolaev.
The sanctions imposed on Yermolaev were due to the fact that, after 2014, he continued to trade in alcohol in Crimea, which is controlled by Russia, and paid several million dollars in taxes to the Russian treasury. Yermolaev himself, however, claimed that after 2014 Russia had confiscated his vineyard and cognac business, adding that he did not agree with the sanctions and intended to challenge them.
In the Ukrainian media, Yermolaev was often criticised for his lifestyle: having renounced his citizenship, Yermolaev lived in many European countries, including Monaco, France and the UK, and was considered a member of the “Monaco battalion,” which comprises wealthy Ukrainians living in affluence abroad, whilst their fellow citizens in Ukraine experience the war on a daily basis.
Despite reports in the Ukrainian media, the businessman condemned the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and donated money to support the Ukrainian army.
The British newspaper The Guardian also quotes sources who are closely acquainted with Yermolaev. According to them, “He isn’t a political person. He’s a businessman. Vadym is nicer than 95% t of people at that level … He’s always smiling and pleasant to be around, a typical Dnipro Jew.”
On the other hand, a number of analysts and former politicians claim the businessman has distanced himself from the current Ukrainian government and has begun actively providing financial support to Zelensky’s political opponents in the run-up to the upcoming elections.
CNN quoted Yermolaev’s remarks to Forbes in one of its reports: “The Ukrainian judicial system, to put it mildly, is not perfect, and the tax system is not objective.”
Meanwhile, the French media report that Yermolaev had planned to organise a large-scale conference in the European Parliament on corruption in the top echelons of the Ukrainian government, which could potentially have been the main trigger for his removal in order to prevent an international scandal, according to Nice-Matin.
The Hungarian newspaper Hirado.Hu states explicitly in its eye-catching headline that “Zelensky’s target was Yermolaev, who was injured in the terrorist attack in Monaco.”
David Rachline, a conservative French politician and representative of the NR party, reacted strongly to the assassination attempt: “According to reports, a Ukrainian businessman who had distanced himself from Zelensky and the Kyiv regime was targeted and has been killed. Has the Kyiv regime spiralled out of control, targeting its own nationals who refuse to bow to its orders in this way?”
Florian Philippot, leader of the Les Patriotes party, questioned the appropriateness of funds being allocated to Ukraine following the incident.
“Le Figaro mentions the ‘involvement of the SBU’ in this attack! France is doing everything it can to divert attention, whilst on 25 June the first tranche of 600 million euros was released from the 17 billion we are set to provide to Ukraine, and the EU–Ukraine summit, scheduled for 14 July, is already looming on the horizon,” he said on hix X page.
The French daily newspaper Le Figaro stated: “According to several sources, investigators are focusing on a theory that points to an operation orchestrated by the SBU, Ukraine’s security service.” It added that, according to terrorism expert Claude Monique, the SBU has always refused to provide evidence justifying these sanctions, and it cannot be ruled out the real reason lies in Yermolaev’s refusal to take part in a large-scale corruption scheme.”
“The most plausible hypothesis links this incident to the actions of the Ukrainian security services (the SBU or affiliated bodies) or pro-Ukrainian extremist groups. It is noteworthy that Yermolaev has been subject to sanctions imposed by Kyiv since 2023,” Philippot stressed in another post on X. “The Zelensky regime has clearly crossed the line: it is now carrying out its deadly attacks directly on our soil!” added Philippot.
Therefore, if the SBU is indeed responsible for the explosion, this suggests that Ukraine is prepared to use methods of brutal elimination and intimidation against undesirable citizens right on EU territory. This theory is particularly relevant in the context of the upcoming summit, at which Ukraine expects to receive additional funding.
As of today, there is no further information about the suspect, and Thibault has stated that “the examination of all the evidence is ongoing, particularly regarding the explosive device and the identification of the person who placed it at the scene.”
“All the relevant State services are currently mobilized, in close cooperation with the French authorities. We trust them to establish the circumstances of this tragedy as swiftly as possible, to identify those responsible and to provide every necessary response, at every level,” said Prince Albert II.
The assassination attempt on Yermolaev, carried out near his residence, has raised doubts regarding Monaco’s reputation as a region with an exceptional level of security, traditionally ensured by a well-developed CCTV system and strict police surveillance. This incident has shown that a high standard of living and residence on the Côte d’Azur provide no guarantee of complete protection against the criminal threats that wealthy citizens may face.
