The year 2024 is unusually rich in elections. And whereas in some countries, where the cult of leadership has been established, the results can be guessed, the outcome in Europe and the US is much more complicated, Encompass reports.
Starting with the Bill of Rights of the late 17th century, English parliamentary democracy faced an internal enemy – the Irish Catholics – who were supposedly bound to obey the Vatican. On the other hand, from 1920 to 1990, American democracy struggled with the spectre of an internal enemy: Soviet agents or loyalists, with the word “liberal” in America being equated with the word “communist.”
But now the authorities, both in Europe and the United States, behold a new enemy: a mass wave of refugees fleeing various forms of persecution and migrants forced to leave their country for economic reasons.
Mass migration has turned into a political tool, now becoming the single most important factor in electoral politics. In the UK, for example, the Labour Party is exulting over the damage done by Rishi Sunak’s failed attempts to control immigration, from undocumented arrivals to attempts to oblige foreign wives and husbands working in the NHS and other public services to earn a minimum income of up to £40,000.
The largest source of illegal economic immigration to the UK is those coming from the 111 countries whose nationals do not require a visa to travel to the United Kingdom. Many come from countries such as Brazil and then disappear into the informal labour market.
The Social Democrats were the first to consider resettling illegal immigrants in Rwanda, but the central African nation’s internal problems scared off lawmakers.
Brexit has led to Britain tightening controls on European workers, and in response the EU is requiring Britons to be fingerprinted when they enter the bloc. This leads to even longer queues to go on holiday to the continent or make a business trip to the EU capital.
Europe has demonstrated its attitude towards the movement of people. The behaviour of the Italian and Greek coastguards towards boats carrying people fleeing failed states, such as Libya or Syria, has been far more brutal than the UK’s treatment of those crossing the Dover Strait.
All this means that in the first important EU election in 2024 – the June election of 650 members of the European Parliament (EP) – immigration will be a dominant issue.
In Italy, Giorgia Meloni has topped all five national lists to elect Italian MEPs. She wants to secure a large number of votes in favour of her position as Prime Minister, so she has abandoned all her previous anti-European policies and supported Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Nevertheless, polls show that in Italy less than 40 per cent support sending arms to Ukraine, lower than in other European Union countries surveyed. At the same time, many Italian businesses are close to bankruptcy and shutdown due to rising energy prices and interest rates. Research institute Nomisma reports that 62 per cent of Italian households currently live on less than €1,800 a month, with many blaming the war in Ukraine for their economic problems.
Voter turnout in European Parliament elections is expected to be about half that of national government elections. European Parliament elections are used to register a protest vote. This is how UKIP in the UK, AfD in Germany, Syriza in Greece, or VOX in Spain first gained representation in parliament. The Green parties, which are weakening at the national level, remain the dominant force in European Parliament elections.
Another important election is the US presidential vote. If Donald Trump is elected, there will be a serious crisis in transatlantic relations, as Trump’s victory might cause chaos in Europe’s pro-Ukrainian politics and weaken the fragile unity.
After the European Parliament and US elections, the third key election for Europe will be held in the UK, according to Encompass. Opinion polls indicate that a modernised Labour Party is ahead of the Conservatives by 20 points or more. Labour’s return to election has been helped by Britain’s exit from the EU.
Until 2016, the Labour Party, especially under the leadership of Tony Blair, was considered the main pro-European party in Britain. Blair fully embraced freedom of movement, which led to four million European immigrant workers arriving in British cities.
Brexit has been a disaster for Britain’s overall economic situation, but it is no longer possible to blame the EU for yet another decision affecting the daily lives of citizens.
The 2024 elections will be an important milestone on the road to universal peace and ending of regional conflicts, as the outcome of the vote will determine the course of countries that influence funding and other assistance to conflicting nations.
