As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, a poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research found that the top contenders for the position are largely unknown to Americans.
The poll, conducted after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and Harris became the likely Democratic presidential nominee, highlights the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians can bring to the ticket. It also reveals the challenges the candidates could face if elected.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly stands out as one of those whose name is more recognisable and more popular, especially among Democrats. Meanwhile others, like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, though less well known nationally, can count on deeper support in their home states and regions.
Harris stated on Tuesday that she had not yet decided on her running mate. However, she and her candidate will head into key elections next week in seven states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mark Kelly, Arizona Senator
Of the four potential Democratic VP candidates included in the survey, Kelly has the highest recognition and favourability, according to the AP-NORC poll.
About 3 in 10 American adults have a very or fairly positive view of Kelly, whereas about 2 in 10 have negative sentiments. Evoking more good feelings than bad is a relative rarity in presidential politics these days. Biden and former President Donald Trump have been seen more negatively than positively for years.
However, like many of the other contenders, about half of Americans don’t know Kelly enough to form a judgement about him. Meanwhile, Democrats have particularly warm feelings about the candidate. Forty-five percent view Kelly favourably, whereas about 1 in 10 have an unfavourable opinion, and about 4 in 10 don’t know him enough to say.
Mark Kelly has proven himself as a battle-tested campaigner. He won a special election in 2020 to retake Arizona’s Senate seat from Republicans. He then retained it two years later for a full six-year term. The Navy veteran is also a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and has been an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security.
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Governor
Shapiro is generally unknown to Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he is more popular. The poll found that 6 in 10 American adults – including 57% of Democrats – don’t know enough about Shapiro to form an opinion of him. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favourably, and the same proportion regard him unfavourably.
Meanwhile, about a quarter of Democrats view him favourably and 16% view him adversely. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to have a positive view of Shapiro, but overall, most have yet to form an opinion.
Shapiro was elected governor in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano, a controversial figure who drew opposition and criticism from members of his own party, including then-Republican Senator Pat Toomey.
However, unlike other contenders asked about in the AP-NORC poll, he is much better known in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 American adults view him favourably. Another 4 in 10 or so don’t know enough to form an opinion of him, compared with about 2 in 10 Northeasterners who view him negatively.
I’d hate to see him leave, because he’s just getting started in Pennsylvania.
Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor
Governor Tim Walz doesn’t have much of a national profile. He wasn’t included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos poll found that about 9 in 10 American adults did not know enough to form an opinion about him. Among Americans who do have an opinion, attitudes are also split between positive and negative.
Walz, who has been in the House for 12 years, has risen on Harris’ short list in recent days after he coined “weird” as a new talking point to describe the Republican ticket. That line is now widely used by the vice president and other Democrats.
Currently, he heads the Democratic Governors Association.
Andy Beshear, Kentucky Governor
Beshear will have to introduce himself to most of the country if elected. About 7 in 10 Americans don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Those who do have a judgement are split roughly evenly, with 17 per cent of American adults having a favourable opinion and 15 per cent holding a negative one.
However, Democrats view Beshear more favourably than negatively. About a quarter hold a very or somewhat favourable opinion. Meanwhile, about 1 in 10 have a negative judgement. Nearly two-thirds do not know enough about Beshear to express an opinion.
Beshear defeated then-Governor Matt Bevin and then won re-election in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, a longtime protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Beshear’s victory last year was attributed in part to his advocacy of abortion rights.
